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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +59 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −55 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170d |  FraterTetractous | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,982 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | FieryPhoenix | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,255 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,118 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | Reminiscence0w0 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,734 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | johnny-guitar | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 170d |  Prexpect2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,628 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d | Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,174 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,181 | +$297 +2.9% | 21 |
| 170d |  Annica2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,751 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 170d | svmt2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,059 | +$387 +19% | 24 |
| 170d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$221 +7.6% | 22 |
| 170d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d |  KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,650 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | PredictionYogi | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,702 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 171d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$102 +5.3% | 22 |
| 171d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,104 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | ylnopU | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,012 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 171d | Reminiscence0w0 | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$237 +9.5% | 23 |
| 171d |  Boss73 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,349 | +$27 +0.4% | 20 |
| 171d | Dotachris | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,767 | +$133 +7.5% | 22 |
| 171d | Dotachris | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,740 | +$206 +7.5% | 22 |
| 171d | TomCryptoDefi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,002 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | TomSargent | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,787 | +$155 +8.7% | 23 |
| 171d |  LaPoutreDu06 | 40-64 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$120 −11% | — |
| 171d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | ManCangGangGanDaDanGan2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,634 | +$90 +1.9% | 21 |
| 171d | Tagan1 | 40-64 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$409 +14% | 24 |
| 171d | WCWS | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 171d |  Gustav4 | 40-64 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$230 +19% | 24 |
| 171d | ylnopU | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 171d |  C78123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,869 | +$131 +1.3% | 20 |
| 171d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,966 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 171d | Boss73 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,795 | +$38 +0.4% | 20 |
| 171d | 0xbea8…36ef2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,083 | +$73 +2.4% | 21 |
| 171d | Unwelcome-Wrap | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,166 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | carboyant | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,959 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 171d | gertrudeee | 40-64 | SellYes32¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$2,405 −215% | — |
| 171d |  upont | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 171d | gertrudeee | 40-64 | BuyYes31¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$2,271 +227% | 28 |
| 171d | OstapP | 40-64 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,190 | −$1,190 −100% | 26 |
| 171d | ABC13213 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,667 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 171d | anon.1980.123 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,340 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 171d | Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,164 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 171d | HuatzTTM | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,515 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | Irondo | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,863 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | ABC13213 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,661 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 172d | besmart2025 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,301 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | HuatzTTM | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,968 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Liam221 | 40-64 | SellNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,037 | +$1,037 +100% | — |
| 172d | Separate-Beast2 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,116 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | KARMASUR | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,954 | +$42 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | onekey09 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,521 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | C78123 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | anon.1980.123 | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,304 | +$37 +2.9% | 20 |
| 172d | besmart20253 fills | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,945 | +$174 +4.4% | 21 |
| 172d | OstapP | <40 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,594 | +$226 +8.7% | 21 |
| 172d | labtradoor | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,970 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | labtradoor | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
A1myFirst127 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 27 12:00 PM ET to April 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.