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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <250 | 100% | 0 pts | +97 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 250-274 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325-349 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-574 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575-599 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600+ | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 554d | cipherpilot2 fills | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,657 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 554d |  Debosnys2 fills | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,764 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 |
| 554d |  Elonurmom | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,290 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 554d | glarity | 275-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 554d | cipherpilot3 fills | 300-324 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,265 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 554d |  CallmeEuphoria | 325-349 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,051 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 554d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | <250 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,078 | +$176 +4.3% | 21 |
| 554d | StopNoticing | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,759 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 554d | AreWeNotEntertained | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,783 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 554d | AreWeNotEntertained | 250-274 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,550 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 554d |  TheUnconsiousStatistician | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,042 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 554d |  afterer | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,455 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 554d | glarity | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,836 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 554d | wesleycoup | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,127 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 554d | afterer | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,214 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 555d | JSoon | <250 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,043 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 555d | cigarettes3 fills | 275-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,409 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 555d | AZwater5 fills | <250 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $19,725 | +$408 +2.1% | 21 |
| 555d | AZwater | 600+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,028 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 555d | sampheng | 300-324 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,142 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 555d | merkur | 250-274 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$27 +1.4% | 20 |
| 555d | Thanatos17 | <250 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,219 | +$46 +3.7% | 21 |
| 555d | Ttoend | <250 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | −$82 −5.1% | — |
| 555d |  qingping | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,296 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 555d | cigarettes3 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,055 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 555d | cigarettes3 fills | 250-274 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,984 | +$86 +1.7% | 20 |
| 555d | cipherpilot2 fills | <250 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,532 | +$60 +1.7% | 20 |
| 555d | SERDCE | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 555d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 325-349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,248 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 555d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 250-274 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,201 | +$52 +1.6% | 20 |
| 555d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,249 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 555d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 275-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,238 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 555d | nbapro | 250-274 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,401 | +$32 +2.3% | 20 |
| 555d | nbapro2 fills | <250 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,416 | +$176 +2.7% | 20 |
| 555d | ethan123 | <250 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,889 | +$95 +2.4% | 20 |
| 555d | CallmeEuphoria | <250 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$34 +3.4% | 21 |
| 555d | JSoon | <250 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,427 | +$94 +6.6% | 21 |
| 555d | facaiffff | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,270 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 555d | woshinibaba101 | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,028 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 555d |  Naichli | <250 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,912 | −$295 −15% | — |
| 555d | cipherpilot | 300-324 | BuyNo100¢ | $5,244 | +$26 +0.5% | 20 |
| 556d | garrrryan | <250 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,303 | −$159 −12% | — |
| 556d | glarity | 300-324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,149 | +$31 +0.6% | 20 |
| 556d | CallmeEuphoria | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,010 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 556d | CallmeEuphoria2 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,021 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 556d | CallmeEuphoria | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 556d | Thanatos17 | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,200 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 556d | cigarettes | 325-349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 556d |  Prexpect2 fills | <250 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,191 | +$1,065 +33% | 22 |
| 556d |  Suzuha | <250 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,991 | +$509 +13% | 22 |
| 556d | CallmeEuphoria | 550-574 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 556d | CallmeEuphoria | 575-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 556d | Cryptochef | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,487 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 557d | nonkenny903 fills | 600+ | SellNo>99¢ | $6,416 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 557d |  lolboy4D | <250 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,477 | +$516 +35% | 24 |
| 557d | Naichli | <250 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$457 +42% | 25 |
| 557d | Ttoend | <250 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$510 +43% | 25 |
| 557d |  DickTurbin | 575-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,373 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 557d | DickTurbin | 600+ | SellNo>99¢ | $5,325 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 557d | As24051 | <250 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,336 | +$574 +43% | 25 |
vamnizar1,000 shares
MarioFrigo383 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <250 means the market gives it about 100%.