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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +34 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 191d | 0x9429…c151 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,089 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | 1647171 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,181 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Optimal-Overclocking | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,118 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d |  HeveanlyEmma | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Repulsive-Hit | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Puzzled-Homeland | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,080 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,960 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d |  KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,178 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 192d |  kevinlan0922 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,414 | −$40 −0.5% | — |
| 192d | fgdfgfdgfd5 | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,198 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 192d | Ommamal | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,141 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 192d |  Gustav4 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,957 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 192d |  Deepwinner888 | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,799 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 192d | Gustav4 | 65-89 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,549 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 192d | Pungent-Almanac | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,272 | +$26 +0.6% | 20 |
| 192d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,493 | +$195 +5.6% | 22 |
| 192d | yip88 | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$27 +2.2% | 21 |
| 192d |  Annica2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $11,939 | +$685 +5.7% | 22 |
| 192d | Annica2 fills | 65-89 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,334 | −$87 −3.7% | — |
| 192d | yip88 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,241 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | yolol | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,203 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | tulasiraolanke | 90-114 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | −$133 −9.5% | — |
| 192d | OneMillion100 | 65-89 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | +$84 +6.1% | 22 |
| 192d | bipbipbop | 65-89 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | −$156 −15% | — |
| 192d | Wuk0ng2 fills | 65-89 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,246 | −$423 −13% | — |
| 192d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,087 | −$65 −3.1% | — |
| 192d | forestk | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,217 | +$183 +2.2% | 21 |
| 192d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,873 | +$84 +2.9% | 21 |
| 192d | BinaryBaron5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,134 | +$79 +0.3% | 20 |
| 192d |  upont5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,295 | +$91 +0.3% | 20 |
| 192d |  all.in0828 | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,875 | +$71 +3.8% | 21 |
| 192d | Cryptan228 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,804 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 192d |  Annual-Billing | 65-89 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | −$97 −9.3% | — |
| 192d | 111asdddsa | 65-89 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,676 | +$126 +7.5% | 22 |
| 192d | kevinlan0922 | 65-89 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $6,917 | +$929 +13% | 24 |
| 192d | Annual-Billing | 65-89 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $994 | +$149 +15% | 24 |
| 192d | Prinas | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,384 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 192d | daozhu123 | 65-89 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | −$212 −19% | — |
| 192d | Wuk0ng | 65-89 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$446 +14% | 24 |
| 192d | upont2 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,043 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 192d | balorakra | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,404 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | francesamilani | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,826 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | wtfdoublecaptome | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,500 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d | Yanncll | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,115 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 90-114 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,407 | +$599 +18% | 24 |
| 192d | logesh32 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,259 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Collion2 fills | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,588 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | 07nbw42 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,519 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d |  Gabbers | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,151 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Coinupup | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,119 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Antaaa79 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,315 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | upont3 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,833 | +$58 +0.5% | 20 |
| 192d | WCWS | 40-64 | SellNo100¢ | $1,591 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 192d | Oval-Convection | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,738 | +$12 +0.7% | 20 |
| 192d | lankeleads | 90-114 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $998 | +$250 +25% | 25 |
| 192d |  C78123 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d | Perfumed-Whirlpool | 90-114 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | +$454 +26% | 25 |
| 192d | yip88 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 192d | martinlim | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,147 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d | These-Yoyo | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,261 | +$35 +2.8% | 21 |
nimikm2,230 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 6 12:00 PM ET to April 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.