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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +95 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −23 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −40 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −3 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −60 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −32 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −7 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 185d | niceShare | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,145 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | Komhd | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,393 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | NEEKOKRAB | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | Actual-Ladle | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,989 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d |  Kamenshyk22 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | FieryPhoenix | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,518 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Icannotwin | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,539 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | davpol | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,612 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | timler | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,738 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d |  Fablurou | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,093 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | OstapP | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,061 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | david.eth | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,066 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d |  hidden-james | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,545 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | tkmonie | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | 0x863b…4f2c | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,891 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | 0x9429…c151 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,304 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | 0x9429…c151 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,449 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | 0x9429…c151 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,308 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | distroaa | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,668 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Poiuztrewq | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,398 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | ShivaLemire | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Papuasus | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,976 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Medical-Universe | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,161 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | French-Saint | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,458 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Abd1011 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,653 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Questionable-Prostrate | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,145 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | spakila | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,546 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | 7thskyboomboom | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,876 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 186d |  Gustav42 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,975 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 186d |  LinaBell🦊 | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,077 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 186d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,981 | +$192 +1.0% | 20 |
| 186d |  lasiweijiasi2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,996 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 186d |  Deepwinner888 | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,253 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 186d |  Therealsmurf | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 186d | Bustling-Repository | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,164 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 186d | Questionable-Prostrate | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$34 +3.1% | 21 |
| 186d |  PredictionYogi | 280-299 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | +$75 +5.3% | 22 |
| 186d | geraldhew89 | 280-299 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,372 | +$126 +5.3% | 22 |
| 186d | morkolen | 300-319 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,307 | +$107 +8.2% | 23 |
| 186d |  Prexpect | 280-299 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,302 | +$287 +8.7% | 23 |
| 186d | geraldhew89 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,125 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | geraldhew89 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | Papuasus | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,836 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | beatyesterday | 280-299 | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $3,131 | +$3,131 +100% | — |
| 186d |  upont | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,844 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 186d | Dense-Muscat | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,183 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | lasiweijiasi | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,341 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,214 | +$39 +0.3% | 20 |
| 186d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,959 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 186d | carboyant | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,682 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 186d | carboyant | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,383 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | carboyant | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,302 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | streetdebt | 320-339 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,878 | −$23 −1.2% | — |
| 186d |  lolboy4D | 300-319 | SellYes79¢ → 0¢ | $1,234 | +$1,234 +100% | — |
| 186d |  Boss7 | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 0¢ | $2,992 | −$2,992 −100% | 21 |
| 186d | pupupuup2 fills | 280-299 | SellNo97¢ → 0¢ | $2,076 | +$2,076 +100% | — |
| 186d | Prexpect | 300-319 | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $2,414 | −$2,414 −100% | 26 |
| 186d |  AlmostRich | 280-299 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,165 | −$1,165 −100% | 30 |
| 186d |  Meow12 | 300-319 | BuyYes41¢ → 0¢ | $1,882 | −$1,882 −100% | 31 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.