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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +82 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −69 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,687 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | Safff | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,576 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d |  LinaBell🦊 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,621 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d | CakeBake | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d |  Gustav4 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,112 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 62d | Gustav42 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,034 | +$26 +0.9% | 20 |
| 63d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,490 | +$200 +8.0% | 22 |
| 63d | Safff | 40-64 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,219 | +$184 +15% | 24 |
| 63d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,154 | +$328 +15% | 24 |
| 63d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,212 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | 0x1d94…80da | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | +$616 +45% | 28 |
| 63d |  upont2 fills | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,257 | −$33 −1.5% | — |
| 63d | OstapP | 40-64 | SellNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,250 | +$1,250 +100% | — |
| 63d | patouossa | 65-89 | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 28 |
| 63d | anon.1980.1233 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,883 | +$185 +3.1% | 21 |
| 63d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,118 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,159 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | dafei888 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,296 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | bipbipbop | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 64d | pingfan6662 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,868 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | suifeng668 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,822 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 64d |  Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,960 | +$40 +0.4% | 20 |
| 64d | upont2 fills | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,182 | +$27 +0.6% | 20 |
| 64d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | +$14 +0.8% | 20 |
| 65d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyNo53¢ → 0¢ | $1,093 | −$1,093 −100% | 22 |
dz1ft9,392 shares
hochnaesigezicke800 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.