Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −28 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,884 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 46d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,002 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 46d | Limping-Baggie-Technique | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,325 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 46d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,370 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 46d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,407 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 46d |  Rocklee05 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,009 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 46d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,048 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 46d | y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 46d | ym-mzt1 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 46d | bilong237 | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,129 | −$32 −1.5% | — |
| 46d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,234 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 46d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,800 | +$87 +3.1% | 21 |
| 47d | 0xf14e…6173 | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,818 | +$158 +8.7% | 23 |
| 47d | patouossa | 40-64 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | −$638 −43% | — |
| 47d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$12 +0.9% | 20 |
| 47d | Candid-Wiring | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,291 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 47d | xiaojido202 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,805 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 47d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,765 | +$42 +1.5% | 20 |
| 47d |  leleko2k | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$30 +3.0% | 20 |
| 47d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,294 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d | Amir10001 | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$73 +1.8% | 20 |
| 48d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$758 +40% | 25 |
| 48d | 0xf14e…6173 | <40 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,508 | +$119 +7.9% | 21 |
| 48d | leleko2k | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 48d | Candid-Wiring | <40 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,922 | +$372 +19% | 23 |
| 49d | patouossa | 40-64 | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,540 | +$1,280 +83% | 25 |
| 49d | CakeBake | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,113 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
Lancelat1 shares
dz1ft2,437 shares
atoutlemonde516 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.