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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450–479 | 100% | +71 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–329 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 330–359 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360–389 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 390–419 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420–449 | 0% | −57 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480–509 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 510–539 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540–569 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 570–599 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600–629 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 630–659 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660–689 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 690–719 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720–749 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 750–779 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 780–809 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 810–839 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840–869 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 870–899 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 900+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 406d |  SCHIZO-RELAY-PAYS-ME | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,359 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 406d |  monkmood | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,190 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 406d | monkmood | 480–509 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 406d |  Mester | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,114 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 406d | timler | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 406d | james2101 | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,651 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 406d |  Annica | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 407d |  ElonSpam | 480–509 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,792 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | cipherpilot | 480–509 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,198 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | WXYXPo | 480–509 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,982 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 407d |  DJHANNA4 fills | 750–779 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,431 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | DJHANNA3 fills | 720–749 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,013 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | ElonSpam2 fills | 450–479 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,955 | +$107 +1.2% | 20 |
| 407d |  Prexpect | 450–479 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 407d | Poory | 450–479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 407d | DonaldMusk13 fills | 450–479 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,734 | +$277 +3.6% | 21 |
| 407d | astromage | 450–479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 407d | DonaldMusk13 fills | 480–509 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,550 | +$58 +0.9% | 20 |
| 407d |  Gustav42 fills | 480–509 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,074 | +$20 +0.6% | 20 |
| 407d | ShivaLemire | 450–479 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,414 | −$50 −3.5% | — |
| 407d | Annica3 fills | 450–479 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $7,655 | +$2,571 +34% | 27 |
| 407d | 0xeccdededcc2 fills | 450–479 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,468 | +$172 +2.7% | 21 |
| 407d | WXYXPo | 480–509 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,569 | +$56 +3.5% | 21 |
| 407d | monkmood | 450–479 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$31 +3.1% | 21 |
| 407d | Annica | 420–449 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,516 | +$56 +1.0% | 20 |
| 407d |  HolyMoses7 | 420–449 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,848 | +$152 +1.5% | 21 |
| 407d | Prexpect | 450–479 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,380 | +$204 +8.6% | 23 |
| 407d | james2101 | 450–479 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | +$141 +9.3% | 23 |
| 407d | ShivaLemire | 450–479 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,013 | +$51 +2.5% | 21 |
| 407d | Proficient123 | 450–479 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | +$67 +6.4% | 22 |
| 407d | Proficient123 | 450–479 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$79 −7.5% | — |
| 407d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 510–539 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | tigerbearlion4 fills | 420–449 | BuyYes74¢ → 0¢ | $7,675 | −$7,675 −100% | 27 |
| 407d | Puxin | 420–449 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$116 +11% | 23 |
| 407d |  Armlet | 540–569 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,143 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | tigerbearlion | 450–479 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$771 +62% | 28 |
| 407d | cipherpilot | 540–569 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,416 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | tigerbearlion | 420–449 | SellYes49¢ → 0¢ | $2,517 | +$2,517 +100% | — |
| 407d | ElonSpam | 510–539 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 407d | Annica | 420–449 | SellYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,287 | +$1,287 +100% | — |
| 407d | Annica | 420–449 | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $1,558 | −$1,558 −100% | 25 |
| 407d | AZwater | 480–509 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,776 | +$23 +0.6% | 20 |
| 407d | XZZD2 fills | 480–509 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,273 | +$65 +1.0% | 20 |
| 407d | XZZD | 540–569 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,350 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | XZZD | 570–599 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,386 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | XZZD | 600–629 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,891 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | ShivaLemire | 420–449 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 26 |
| 407d | astromage | 690–719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,820 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | DJHANNA2 fills | 690–719 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,996 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | DJHANNA3 fills | 660–689 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,348 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 407d | astromage | 540–569 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 407d | astromage | 570–599 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,836 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | chocolate123 | 660–689 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,505 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d |  scastro2303 | 390–419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,527 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 407d |  TrueLove | 720–749 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,022 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d |  KatArc | 720–749 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,057 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | Annica | 540–569 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,095 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | swagalier9 | 390–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,040 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d | Annica2 fills | 390–419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,005 | +$142 +2.4% | 20 |
| 407d | TheLastOfMachine | 390–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,222 | +$46 +0.2% | 20 |
CavaSoTasty15,872 shares
mystupidchudlife1,000 shares
FreeCityIndividual400 shares
vaslevs300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and September 5, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 450–479 means the market gives it about 100%.