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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −32 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −43 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45d |  upont | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,933 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 45d | beatyesterday4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,560 | +$34 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,835 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d |  Sugarina | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,618 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 45d | ym-mzt1 | 65-89 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,016 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 45d | upont | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,605 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 45d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,880 | +$81 +2.8% | 21 |
| 45d | upont | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | +$44 +3.1% | 21 |
| 45d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,434 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xf14e…6173 | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 45d | 0x7d89…ece7 | 65-89 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | −$295 −29% | — |
| 45d | 0xf14e…6173 | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$98 +8.2% | 22 |
| 45d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,681 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d | ellio8989 | 40-64 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$1,452 +123% | 28 |
| 45d | Candid-Wiring | 40-64 | BuyNo55¢ → 0¢ | $2,084 | −$2,084 −100% | 28 |
| 45d | Candid-Wiring | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,711 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 45d | mamai | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$108 +7.2% | 22 |
| 45d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,432 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xf14e…6173 | 90-114 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | +$104 +8.1% | 22 |
| 45d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,890 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d | upont | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,967 | +$35 +0.7% | 20 |
| 45d | ElonSimp2 fills | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,470 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 46d |  Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$139 +11% | 22 |
| 46d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | +$261 +24% | 23 |
| 46d | Candid-Wiring | <40 | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$834 +44% | 25 |
dz1ft47,832 shares
BigMackyG2,660 shares
atoutlemonde630 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.