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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −34 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70d | 0x1d94…80da | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,455 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 70d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,085 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | s777s | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,991 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 70d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | GOTOPNO1 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,027 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | 0B06 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,315 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d |  Danielx866 | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 70d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,653 | +$340 +21% | 26 |
| 70d | karen2p | <40 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,962 | +$627 +13% | 24 |
| 70d | nbjui1 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,776 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d |  upont | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,116 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 70d | corpon | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 70d | s777s | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 70d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,488 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 70d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,150 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 70d | 0x1d94…80da | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,652 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 70d | carboyant | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 70d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,758 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,386 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 70d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,676 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,067 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 70d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,399 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 70d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,393 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 70d | upont | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,881 | +$39 +1.0% | 20 |
| 71d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,184 | +$95 +2.3% | 20 |
| 71d | nbjui1 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,492 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 71d | grokel | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 72d | kjjhvghv98 | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,527 | +$25 +1.6% | 20 |
dz1ft44,908 shares
BigMackyG1,822 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.