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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +88 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −14 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −58 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63d | anon.1980.123 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,195 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,501 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 64d |  dingdangcat | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,748 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 64d | htr3gtrhg | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,349 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 64d | dacainiao001 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 64d | Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian2 fills | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,893 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 64d |  Prexpect | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,256 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | alohaa | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,116 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | Prexpect | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,842 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,100 | +$113 +2.2% | 21 |
| 64d |  ElonSpam | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | beatyesterday2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,556 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 64d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | dacainiao001 | 200-219 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,280 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 64d | sazzaa2 fills | 180-199 | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,098 | −$786 −37% | — |
| 64d | beatyesterday | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,209 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 64d |  upont | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,283 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 64d | upont2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,996 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 64d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,919 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | AnonymousPerson | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,405 | +$99 +4.1% | 21 |
| 64d | htr3gtrhg | 180-199 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | +$68 +5.3% | 22 |
| 64d | CakeBake | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | 0xa67b…af43 | 180-199 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | −$79 −4.8% | — |
| 64d | 0x1d94…80da2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,113 | +$80 +3.8% | 21 |
| 64d | PredictionYogi | 180-199 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | −$165 −12% | — |
| 64d | pupupuup | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,545 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 64d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | +$176 +8.9% | 22 |
| 64d | Vincent44230 | 180-199 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | −$355 −28% | — |
| 64d | Amir10001 | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,040 | +$208 +4.1% | 21 |
| 64d | anon.1980.1234 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,859 | +$211 +2.7% | 20 |
| 64d |  axelverse.sol | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | −$48 −2.5% | — |
| 64d | ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,167 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | anon.1980.123 | 180-199 | SellNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,195 | +$1,195 +100% | — |
| 64d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,094 | +$23 +1.1% | 20 |
| 64d | upont | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 64d | xiaojido202 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,991 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | venezuelain | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | AnonymousPerson | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 64d | carboyant | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,163 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,036 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d |  Boss7 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,495 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | Marsache | 160-179 | SellYes59¢ → 0¢ | $1,099 | +$1,099 +100% | — |
| 65d | bipbipbop | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 65d | ElonSpam | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,046 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 65d | suifeng668 | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,330 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 65d | dafei888 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 65d | dafei888 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,992 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 65d |  UnstoppableLoxodont | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,042 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 65d | axelverse.sol | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 65d | onekey02 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,355 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 65d | anon.1980.123 | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $4,633 | −$4,633 −100% | 21 |
| 65d | byteA | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,050 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 65d | weatherprod | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,802 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 65d | CakeBake2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,523 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 65d | CakeBake2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 65d | JohnWeeak | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,307 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 65d | Adorable-Initial | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$46 +0.7% | 20 |
| 65d | Adorable-Initial | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$119 +4.0% | 21 |
dz1ft17,336 shares
vamnizar1,763 shares
atoutlemonde1,400 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.