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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450+ | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <150 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180–209 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–269 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 270–299 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–329 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 330–359 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360–389 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 390–419 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420–449 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 429d | leiger | 420–449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,071 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 429d | cipherpilot2 fills | 420–449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,720 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 429d |  abraham205112 fills | 450+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,577 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 429d | cipherpilot3 fills | 450+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,584 | +$28 +0.3% | 20 |
| 429d | zeus76 | 450+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,006 | +$78 +1.1% | 20 |
| 429d | cipherpilot3 fills | 390–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,680 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 429d | MoRo | 450+ | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | −$59 −5.6% | — |
| 430d |  VibeTrader2 fills | 450+ | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,316 | −$130 −3.9% | — |
| 430d |  Prexpect | 360–389 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,216 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 430d | Snoorrason2 fills | 360–389 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,232 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 430d |  imp | 390–419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,819 | +$37 +2.0% | 20 |
| 431d | glarity | 330–359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 431d | Icannotwin | 390–419 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$44 +4.4% | 21 |
| 431d | glarity | 300–329 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,586 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d | edison668 | 300–329 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d | Icannotwin | 360–389 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 431d | astromage | 270–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,997 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d | leiger2 fills | 270–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,156 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d |  Cookedtan | 360–389 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$22 +1.4% | 20 |
| 431d | Cookedtan | 420–449 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$150 +10% | 22 |
| 431d | Cookedtan | 390–419 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,504 | +$86 +5.7% | 21 |
| 431d | Cookedtan | 270–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,588 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d | Cookedtan | 330–359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,588 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d | Cookedtan | 300–329 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,587 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 431d |  tt.nastyaa | 270–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,809 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 431d |  sunflowerboy | 240–269 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,190 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d |  Naichli2 fills | 450+ | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $3,288 | +$2,286 +70% | 22 |
| 431d | Icannotwin | 360–389 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$87 +8.7% | 21 |
| 431d | 0x97cc…bbbf | 240–269 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,111 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 431d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 270–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,587 | +$30 +0.4% | 20 |
| 431d | ElonSpam | 240–269 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 432d | 0rocky007 | 300–329 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,269 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 |
| 432d | leiger2 fills | 240–269 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,316 | +$24 +0.3% | 20 |
| 432d |  PredictionYogi | 450+ | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,491 | −$1,491 −100% | 22 |
| 432d | astromage | 180–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,120 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 432d | astromage | 210–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,499 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 432d | edison668 | 180–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 432d | imp | 210–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 433d | leiger | 150–179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 433d |  HolyMoses7 | 150–179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 433d | HolyMoses7 | 180–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 433d | 0rocky007 | <150 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,112 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 433d | Prexpect | 450+ | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $3,932 | −$3,932 −100% | 20 |
| 433d | Puxin | <150 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,522 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 433d | chocolate123 | <150 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 433d | zeus76 | 180–209 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 434d | TinyKate | <150 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,790 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
WienerProcess2,038 shares
Macalin14604 shares
MrLucker519 shares
RealDonaldMusk449 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 8, 2025, 8:00 PM ET and August 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 450+ means the market gives it about 100%.