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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 420-439 | 100% | +73 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | +3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −33 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −37 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −25 pts | +11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −41 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −7 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −4 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290d |  LuckyMANNN | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | 100kGem | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  guy3050 | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  BidenFan | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,746 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | MovingForward | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,993 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | bonben | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,648 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  ShibRigsEverything | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,698 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | Hawkie | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,442 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | Unique-InsurgenceNew account | 420-439 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $3,836 | −$997 −26% | — |
| 290d | Poory | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,779 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  LordYeah | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,296 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  noreasapa | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,617 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  Kamenshyk22 | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,175 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  hypster1o | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | Poory | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,913 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | 831ll | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  aljefe | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,058 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | asdasdrgdfg | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,558 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d | noreasapa | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d |  500AndADream | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,643 | −$23 −0.2% | — |
| 290d | Houdray | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d |  MankPredict | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,198 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 290d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,961 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d | medvedd | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,039 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d | flyingpiglj2 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,313 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d |  KARMASUR2 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,091 | +$62 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d |  CryptoMahakala | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,671 | +$29 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d | ShivaLemire | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,992 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 290d |  Prexpect5 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $21,938 | +$1,416 +6.5% | 22 |
| 290d | Positive-Passing | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,581 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 290d |  Gustav45 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $22,370 | +$630 +2.8% | 21 |
| 290d | Gustav43 fills | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $23,846 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | aljefe | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,586 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 290d | Gustav4 | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,083 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 290d | cucuruzblindat | 420-439 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,172 | −$25 −0.6% | — |
| 290d | besmart2025 | 420-439 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,487 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 290d | IO. | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,011 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  welsing | 420-439 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 290d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $3,299 | +$1,028 +31% | 28 |
| 290d | Thin-Print | 440-459 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,033 | −$61 −1.0% | — |
| 290d | niceShare2 fills | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,687 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | noreasapa | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,996 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d | LuckyMANNN | 440-459 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,380 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 290d | influenz.eth2 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,769 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d |  dope-degen | 420-439 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 290d | influenz.eth3 fills | 440-459 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,865 | +$72 +1.5% | 20 |
| 290d | geraldhew892 fills | 440-459 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,000 | +$126 +1.1% | 20 |
| 290d | l-love-you4 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,080 | +$268 +3.8% | 21 |
| 290d | l-love-you | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,584 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 290d | MovingForward | 420-439 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,955 | +$41 +1.4% | 20 |
| 290d | OMGIamhere | 420-439 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,202 | +$66 +3.0% | 21 |
| 290d | leiger2 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,457 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d | cigarettes | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,831 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d | cigarettes | 440-459 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,755 | +$85 +3.1% | 21 |
| 290d |  Annica2 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,616 | +$61 +0.8% | 20 |
| 290d | danielhashman | 420-439 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,382 | +$43 +1.8% | 21 |
| 290d |  Mentha | 420-439 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$61 +5.5% | 22 |
| 290d | Pitter | 420-439 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,740 | +$260 +5.5% | 22 |
| 290d | 500AndADream3 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $9,324 | +$552 +5.9% | 22 |
| 290d | l-love-you3 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,123 | +$157 +1.3% | 20 |
Grilozim2,000 shares
BLOODOFJESUS1,422 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 23 12:00 PM ET to December 30, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 420-439 means the market gives it about 100%.