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Polymarket wallet 0x4abe80dca6396a5c0b3629416311de0002e311ec · on Polymarket since Dec 21, 2024 · also shown as Hot-Fallacy
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 230 | 69¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$157 −100% |
| Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 92 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Celtics vs. MagicSettled - ready to redeem | Celtics | 25 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Thunder vs. Trail BlazersSettled - ready to redeem | Thunder | 24 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 14 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Celtics vs. MagicSettled - ready to redeem | Magic | 17 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Lakers vs. HawksSettled - ready to redeem | Lakers | 31 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 208 | 37¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$77 −100% |
| Pistons vs. 76ersSettled - ready to redeem | 76ers | 26 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Timberwolves vs. KnicksSettled - ready to redeem | Timberwolves | 35 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo98¢ | $36 |
| 5d | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SellNo98¢ | $344 |
| 5d | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SellNo98¢ | $83 |
| 6d | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SellNo97¢ | $223 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BuyNo97¢ | $83 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BuyNo97¢ | $10 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BuyNo97¢ | $30 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BuyNo97¢ | $100 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BuyNo97¢ | $100 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyNo97¢ | $5 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyNo95¢ | $30 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BuyNo95¢ | $10 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BuyNo95¢ | $10 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BuyNo96¢ | $100 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BuyNo96¢ | $100 |
| 10d | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BuyNo95¢ | $100 |
| 109d | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? | Buy4¢ | $25 |
| 124d | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Buy1¢ | $51 |
| 124d | Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Buy21¢ | $10 |
| 124d | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Buy21¢ | $26 |
| 124d | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Buy1¢ | $15 |
| 124d | Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | SellYes99¢ | $11 |
| 124d | Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | BuyYes89¢ | $10 |
| 126d | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Buy33¢ | $51 |
| 126d | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Buy5¢ | $15 |
| 127d | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Buy15¢ | $41 |
| 127d | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Buy15¢ | $5 |
| 203d | Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | SellNo3¢ | $10 |
| 204d | Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | BuyNo5¢ | $15 |
| 204d | Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | SellYes96¢ | $319 |
| 205d | Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes96¢ | $100 |
| 205d | Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes96¢ | $220 |
| 209d | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SellYes34¢ | $0 |
| 209d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo14¢ | $2 |
| 210d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SellNo35¢ | $350 |
| 212d | Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SellNo33¢ | $194 |
| 212d | Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BuyNo34¢ | $200 |
| 213d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BuyNo35¢ | $259 |
| 213d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BuyNo35¢ | $11 |
| 213d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BuyNo35¢ | $27 |
| 213d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BuyNo35¢ | $22 |
| 214d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | BuyUp70¢ | $10 |
| 214d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BuyNo35¢ | $31 |
| 214d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyNo6¢ | $1 |
| 214d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellYes97¢ | $196 |
| 214d | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BuyNo35¢ | $1 |
| 214d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyYes88¢ | $7 |
| 214d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyYes88¢ | $18 |
| 214d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyYes88¢ | $152 |
| 214d | Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SellNo41¢ | $86 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BuyNo48¢ | $100 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $93 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $5 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $10 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $30 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $42 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $250 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $20 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyNo15¢ | $450 |
| 215d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellNo15¢ | $368 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.