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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500-519 | 100% | +90 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −9 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −7 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −11 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −4 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −32 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −28 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 287d |  sezo.eth | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,429 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | swolfStrikes | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,296 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Whatawaytomakealiving | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Cipry | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,116 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | besmart2025 | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,789 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Dreamxbt | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,473 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Dreamxbt | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,798 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  Elonurmom | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,356 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | sezo.eth | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,697 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | sezo.eth | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,544 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Ordon | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,007 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  1000Usdt | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,916 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  flywheelpoly | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,064 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  kimppuppi | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,596 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  nut21 | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,057 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | pennytrader | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | roverpredicts | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,396 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Miracle- | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,370 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | bigteddys | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,629 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Positive-Passing | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,994 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Jolly-Executive | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,746 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,664 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,072 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  beno1cH | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,459 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  500AndADream | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,150 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | besmart2025 | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | Showlin- | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,438 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | hasso422 | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,096 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  Fablurou | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,300 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | GAOZI | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,262 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | kkkkkkkkkkk | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,244 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d |  Annica | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  Parz1vaI | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,442 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | 0x265f…a448 | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,552 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  0xBumblebee | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,003 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 287d |  BoringPunter | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,975 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d |  CryptoMahakala | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d |  ggmggn3 fills | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,190 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 287d | medvedd | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,578 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d | Houdray2 fills | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,294 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 287d | Constant-Premier | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,471 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 287d | Jolly-Executive | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,796 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d |  noreasapa | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,825 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 287d |  welsing | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,414 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 287d | johnlincoln35535 | 500-519 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,098 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 287d |  VibeTrader | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 287d | MovingForward | 500-519 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,602 | −$24 −0.7% | — |
| 287d | KingOfLol | 500-519 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,921 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 287d |  adencheboy | 500-519 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,786 | −$13 −0.7% | — |
| 287d | ShivaLemire | 500-519 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,332 | −$16 −0.7% | — |
| 287d | Trusting-Running2 fills | 500-519 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,913 | −$116 −0.6% | — |
| 287d | yeetttdodddd | 500-519 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,812 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 287d | LoraK | 500-519 | SellYes100¢ | $2,276 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 287d |  ElonSpam10 fills | 500-519 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $65,957 | +$19,043 +29% | 27 |
| 287d | Jolly-Executive3 fills | 520-539 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,131 | +$62 +0.9% | 20 |
| 287d |  zwxokx | 500-519 | BuyYes100¢ | $3,013 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 287d |  Mentha | 500-519 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 287d | KingOfLol | 520-539 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,505 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 287d |  Ox1b1osgjjh173hdhdyy19h18hshbcndims12gsn | 500-519 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,985 | +$193 +1.1% | 20 |
| 287d |  Gustav46 fills | 500-519 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $27,891 | +$1,895 +6.8% | 22 |
OuchMyBalls10,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 26 12:00 PM ET to January 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 500-519 means the market gives it about 100%.