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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 800+ | 100% | +8 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-349 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-399 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-449 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-499 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-549 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-599 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-649 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650-699 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-749 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 750-799 | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 611d |  justchillin | 800+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 611d |  pandatown | 800+ | SellYes>99¢ | $3,027 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 611d |  Gustav42 fills | 800+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,261 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 611d | mRasska | 750-799 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,991 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 611d |  PredictionYogi | 800+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,384 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 611d | onlos | 800+ | SellYes>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 611d | Venividivici | 800+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 611d |  asdfasfdasfdas | 800+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,166 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 611d |  catasus | 800+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 611d | bb77900 | 800+ | SellYes>99¢ | $3,584 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 611d | AreWeNotEntertained3 fills | 800+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $51,914 | +$84 +0.2% | 20 |
| 611d | Rogu | 800+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,076 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 611d | metapotato2 fills | 800+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,706 | +$140 +2.1% | 20 |
| 611d | negar | 800+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,444 | −$23 −1.6% | — |
| 611d | Miki97 | 800+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | −$20 −1.4% | — |
| 611d |  Prexpect3 fills | 800+ | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $4,780 | +$2,179 +46% | 22 |
| 611d | leiger | 800+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | +$24 +1.8% | 20 |
| 611d | noahcc4 fills | 800+ | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $15,006 | +$3,264 +22% | 23 |
| 611d | kiritofi | 750-799 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,002 | +$107 +1.3% | 20 |
| 611d | kiritofi | 700-749 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,508 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 611d |  Skovorodnikov | 700-749 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,777 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 611d | justchillin | 700-749 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,988 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 611d | luluwei | 700-749 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,482 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 611d | Prexpect | 800+ | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,207 | −$116 −5.3% | — |
| 611d | astromage2 fills | 700-749 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,875 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 611d |  HolyMoses7 | 800+ | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,378 | +$122 +8.8% | 21 |
| 611d | Monster24 | 650-699 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,245 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 611d | catasus | 800+ | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,637 | +$159 +9.7% | 21 |
| 611d | Bhenchod | 800+ | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,005 | −$311 −16% | — |
| 611d |  cbo34 | 800+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$132 −13% | — |
| 611d | HolyMoses7 | 750-799 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,066 | +$166 +8.0% | 21 |
| 611d | Monster24 | 800+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,757 | +$255 +6.8% | 21 |
| 611d | Monster24 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,569 | +$290 +8.1% | 21 |
| 611d | cigarettes | 750-799 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$113 +8.1% | 21 |
| 611d | cigarettes | 700-749 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,502 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 611d |  Therealsmurf | 700-749 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 611d | Snoorrason2 fills | 650-699 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,905 | +$84 +0.9% | 20 |
| 611d | tinalina16 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,585 | +$415 +9.1% | 21 |
| 611d | mimiyeazi13 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,585 | +$415 +9.1% | 21 |
| 611d | yinzipi12 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,585 | +$415 +9.1% | 21 |
| 611d | cookolpa10 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,580 | +$420 +9.2% | 21 |
| 611d | lppaziop9 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,580 | +$420 +9.2% | 21 |
| 611d | qunzoon7 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,585 | +$415 +9.1% | 21 |
| 611d | ligag4 | 750-799 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,590 | +$410 +8.9% | 21 |
| 611d | Lavs3838 | 800+ | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | −$164 −16% | — |
| 612d | de4 | 700-749 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,985 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 612d | aaa501845257 | 750-799 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | +$164 +13% | 22 |
| 612d | glarity | 650-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,701 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 612d | leiger2 fills | 650-699 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,849 | +$61 +1.6% | 20 |
| 612d | bb77900 | 800+ | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | +$226 +19% | 23 |
| 612d |  EyesWideOpen911 | 800+ | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,854 | +$379 +20% | 23 |
| 612d | smthng12345 | 650-699 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 612d | Gustav4 | 650-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,527 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 612d |  M5power | 750-799 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$136 +12% | 22 |
| 612d | M5power | 700-749 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 612d |  Arlekinez | 700-749 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$14 +1.4% | 20 |
| 612d | Arlekinez | 650-699 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,027 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 612d | M5power | 700-749 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$16 +1.4% | 20 |
| 612d | M5power | 650-699 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,159 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 612d |  lolboy4D2 fills | 800+ | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,839 | −$734 −19% | — |
thought11,073 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between February 7, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and February 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 800+ means the market gives it about 100%.