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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 228d |  polio123 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,981 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | ft23 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,736 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,125 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  DJB. | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,656 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  LeJoe | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,369 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  lebi4ik | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  GodofGamblers69 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,987 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  bigguy4u | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,174 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  crvAlex | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,345 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | ShivaLemire | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,344 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | dudukos3 fills | 40-64 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $6,034 | −$1,220 −20% | — |
| 228d |  zouranzoki | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,121 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  stauffen | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,266 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | GodofGamblers69 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,037 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | Mascalzonelatino | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,739 | +$41 +1.1% | 20 |
| 228d | zouranzoki | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 228d | RickRockRick | 40-64 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | +$96 +8.2% | 23 |
| 229d |  StinkyCobbler | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,290 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 229d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | SellNo54¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | −$1,205 −85% | — |
| 229d | Tagan1 | 40-64 | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | −$462 −39% | — |
| 229d |  URATOKYO | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,618 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 229d | Ommamal | 65-89 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | −$155 −11% | — |
| 229d | RollinStone | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$47 +4.3% | 21 |
| 229d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $7,555 | +$1,077 +14% | 23 |
| 229d | RickRockRick | 40-64 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,520 | −$105 −4.2% | — |
| 229d | RollinStone | 40-64 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | −$45 −4.2% | — |
| 229d |  onchainbuda | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$44 +4.2% | 21 |
| 229d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,556 | +$66 +2.6% | 21 |
| 229d | influenz.eth6 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,034 | +$87 +1.1% | 20 |
| 229d | Ommamal | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$37 +2.5% | 21 |
| 229d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf92 fills | 65-89 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $3,286 | −$727 −22% | — |
| 229d | powerFeng | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,062 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | crvAlex | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$60 +5.3% | 22 |
| 229d | Ommamal | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,520 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 229d | Pungent-Ski | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,619 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 229d | zzzzdas | 40-64 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,194 | −$325 −15% | — |
| 229d |  FatFrumos | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | BallenaInversa | 65-89 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,648 | +$225 +14% | 24 |
| 229d |  Trevor-Philips | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,113 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 229d | Houdray2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,980 | +$433 +15% | 24 |
| 229d | influenz.eth3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,738 | +$1,035 +28% | 26 |
| 229d | influenz.eth5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,031 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 229d | 07nbw4 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | ft23 | 40-64 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,203 | +$537 +17% | 25 |
| 229d | Oval-Convection | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 229d | HuatzTTM | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,328 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 229d | prepoma | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,838 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 229d | bigguy4u | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,642 | +$537 +12% | 23 |
| 229d | tenorplum | 65-89 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $5,621 | +$837 +15% | 24 |
| 229d | Wild-Manner | 65-89 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,692 | +$347 +20% | 26 |
| 229d | onekey09 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,547 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | purepure | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,046 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | djacljal | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,062 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 229d |  lasiweijiasi2 fills | <40 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,856 | −$199 −5.2% | — |
| 229d | URATOKYO | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,373 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 229d | Dunnooo | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 229d | beatyesterday2 fills | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 229d |  eI0zwvzk | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,029 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 229d | Emintendo2 fills | 65-89 | SellNo67¢ → 100¢ | $2,237 | −$1,108 −50% | — |
monkmood3,627 shares
nimikm1,607 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 28 12:00 PM ET to March 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.