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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 840-879 | 100% | +49 pts | +68 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <200 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-599 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-639 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-679 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-719 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-759 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-799 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | −5 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | −46 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | −2 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1080-1119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1320-1359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1400+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16d | Shallow-Diadem | 840-879 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,844 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 16d |  PredictionYogi | 880-919 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,375 | +$29 +2.1% | 21 |
| 16d | ElonSimp2 fills | 920-959 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,002 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | ElonSimp | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,133 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 16d | DrunkenKraken | 920-959 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 17d | hetacz | 800-839 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,411 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | Leclerc04 | 840-879 | BuyNo23¢ → 0¢ | $1,113 | −$1,113 −100% | 26 |
| 17d | dddtrips | 880-919 | SellYes22¢ → 0¢ | $1,049 | +$1,049 +100% | — |
| 18d | hetacz | 920-959 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | −$209 −15% | — |
| 39d | hetacz | 400-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,895 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | hetacz | 360-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,395 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | hetacz | 320-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | hetacz | 280-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,396 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d |  UnstoppableLoxodont | 240-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,365 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
himken140 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X during the month of September 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 840-879 means the market gives it about 100%.