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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450+ | 100% | +2 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <200 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-224 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225-249 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250-274 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275-299 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325-349 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 619d |  asdfasfdasfdas | 450+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,894 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 619d | metapotato2 fills | 450+ | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 619d | nonkenny90 | 450+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 619d | Monster24 | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,552 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 619d | Monster24 | 450+ | SellYes>99¢ | $3,567 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 619d | wangdandi | 450+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,942 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 619d | 911TurboS | 450+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,491 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 619d | Digital-Sanction | 450+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,781 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 619d |  CallmeEuphoria | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,035 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 619d | 911TurboS | 400-424 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,003 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 619d | Vinivi | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,856 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 619d | Vinivi3 fills | 450+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $24,033 | +$244 +1.0% | 20 |
| 619d | chocolate123 | 450+ | BuyYes100¢ | $1,527 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 619d |  sunflowerboy | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,031 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 620d |  Sportguy | 450+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 620d | astromage6 fills | 450+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,427 | +$446 +5.3% | 20 |
| 620d | BondiBaddie2 fills | 450+ | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $3,473 | −$1,527 −44% | — |
| 620d | Sinful-Industry | 400-424 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 620d |  Pannonius | 450+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,935 | +$41 +1.4% | 20 |
| 620d | afaus | 450+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | −$27 −1.5% | — |
| 620d | Monster24 | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,748 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 620d | Monster24 | 450+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,528 | +$43 +1.2% | 20 |
| 620d | Monster24 | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,528 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 620d |  EyesWideOpen911 | 450+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$14 −1.4% | — |
| 620d | 0rocky007 | 400-424 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,312 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 620d | leiger | 450+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,914 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 620d | sunflowerboy | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,031 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 620d |  Prexpect | 450+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,039 | +$127 +4.2% | 20 |
| 620d | braveB2 fills | 450+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $17,793 | −$2,469 −14% | — |
| 620d | jamesss | 450+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,855 | +$50 +2.7% | 20 |
| 620d | kreinlove | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,981 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 620d | metapotato5 fills | 450+ | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $37,805 | +$3,016 +8.0% | 20 |
| 620d |  Skovorodnikov | 450+ | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | −$101 −5.3% | — |
| 620d | fj409wjfw0j2 fills | 325-349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,241 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 620d | Prexpect | 450+ | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,813 | −$201 −5.3% | — |
| 620d |  GUHHH | 450+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | +$56 +4.2% | 20 |
| 620d |  Nensha | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,010 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 620d |  catasus | 450+ | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $9,518 | −$828 −8.7% | — |
| 620d | CallmeEuphoria | 400-424 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$41 +2.1% | 20 |
| 620d | Monster24 | 425-449 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,472 | +$83 +2.4% | 20 |
| 620d | Monster24 | 350-374 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,524 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 620d |  ElonSpam | 450+ | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,862 | +$207 +11% | 21 |
| 620d | dmitredmit | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,004 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 621d |  Naichli3 fills | 450+ | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $3,435 | +$827 +24% | 21 |
| 621d | longtern | 250-274 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,742 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 621d | rpo2 fills | 250-274 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,157 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 621d | bb77900 | 250-274 | SellNo>99¢ | $25,974 | −$26 −0.1% | — |
| 621d | Monster24 | 400-424 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,463 | +$79 +2.3% | 20 |
| 621d | braveB | 450+ | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$317 +27% | 21 |
| 621d | catasus2 fills | 450+ | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $4,791 | +$1,646 +34% | 22 |
| 621d | Naichli3 fills | 450+ | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $5,157 | −$1,697 −33% | — |
| 621d | bb77900 | 450+ | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $5,028 | −$1,973 −39% | — |
| 621d | wangdandi | 450+ | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$444 +30% | 22 |
| 621d | Monster24 | 375-399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,498 | +$54 +1.5% | 20 |
| 621d | Monster24 | 350-374 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,502 | +$29 +0.8% | 20 |
| 621d | Monster24 | 275-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,502 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 621d | Lavs3838 | 450+ | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $1,343 | −$1,343 −100% | 23 |
| 621d | cipherpilot | 350-374 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,172 | +$33 +1.5% | 20 |
| 621d | glarity | 350-374 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,650 | +$116 +1.5% | 20 |
| 621d | bb77900 | 250-274 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,996 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
thought18,870 shares
enochsmiles18,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and February 7, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 450+ means the market gives it about 100%.