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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 460-479 | 100% | +71 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −6 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −26 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −24 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −15 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −7 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −18 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −7 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | −5 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 266d | car2578 | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,873 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | Flancho | 500-519 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,663 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  Lumi5 | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  OxfordAlphaFund | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,962 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | fedeaaajlp | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,144 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  roverxyz | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | whitewash | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,058 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | cucuruzblindat | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,152 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  HuskyWins | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  Elonurmom | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,167 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | capib | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,323 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  noreasapa | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,493 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  Fablurou | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  morose | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,123 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  stauffen | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,308 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | Clockworks | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,555 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  aljefe2 fills | 500-519 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,008 | −$50 −0.8% | — |
| 266d | ninemmmm | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,164 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | bigbroN | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,700 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,548 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | 28s | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,805 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | swolfStrikes | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | bullorbear | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,565 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | Poiuztrewq | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 460-479 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,532 | −$415 −16% | — |
| 266d | DegenEriccro | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,441 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,530 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | Shallow-Actor | 500-519 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,277 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | 0xb8d16F3E2 | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,706 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 266d |  hypster1o | 460-479 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,004 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | gagagougou | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,134 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | flyingpiglj | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,321 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d |  Gustav45 fills | 460-479 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,787 | +$68 +0.6% | 20 |
| 266d | Clockworks | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,555 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | Tv12345 | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,050 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d |  badmoshbillu | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,125 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | glarity | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,041 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d |  ggmggn | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d |  PredictionYogi6 fills | 460-479 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $13,312 | +$1,960 +15% | 23 |
| 266d | Poory | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | wordofaffirmation | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,341 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | leiger | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,676 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d |  CaptainSakura | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,074 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 266d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,459 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 266d |  Prexpect5 fills | 460-479 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $25,223 | +$545 +2.2% | 21 |
| 266d | Houdray | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,547 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 266d | Gustav45 fills | 480-499 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $32,968 | +$208 +0.6% | 20 |
| 266d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,966 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 266d | gagagougou | 480-499 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,978 | +$77 +0.7% | 20 |
| 266d | 20625657 | 480-499 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,221 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 266d |  Archeroon | 460-479 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 266d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 460-479 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$34 +0.3% | 20 |
| 266d | Cocorw | 460-479 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | −$24 −1.9% | — |
| 266d | OxfordAlphaFund | 460-479 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,926 | +$42 +0.7% | 20 |
| 266d | badmoshbillu | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,125 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 500-519 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 266d | 20625657 | 480-499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,198 | +$45 +2.0% | 21 |
| 266d | cucuruzblindat | 460-479 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,897 | +$46 +1.6% | 21 |
| 266d | Toporceanu | 480-499 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$30 +3.0% | 21 |
| 266d | besmart2025 | 460-479 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,041 | +$71 +3.5% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 16 12:00 PM ET to January 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 460-479 means the market gives it about 100%.