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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 325-349 | 100% | +70 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300 | 0% | −50 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | −35 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | −11 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 630d |  asdfasfdasfdas | 350-374 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 630d | 0xeccdededcc | 325-349 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,975 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 630d |  AcctToBeRetired | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,347 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 630d |  Skovorodnikov | 325-349 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,853 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 630d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,414 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 630d | ExhaustedBoyBilly3 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $10,365 | +$3,673 +35% | 20 |
| 630d | leiger | 325-349 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,398 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 630d | leiger | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,718 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper4 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $8,561 | +$984 +11% | 20 |
| 630d | astromage | 325-349 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,991 | +$24 +1.2% | 20 |
| 630d | astromage4 fills | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,922 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 630d |  uncleroger | 325-349 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | −$21 −2.0% | — |
| 630d | AZwater | 325-349 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,978 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 630d | astromage3 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,497 | +$299 +5.4% | 20 |
| 630d | AZwater2 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,997 | +$110 +1.8% | 20 |
| 630d |  Gustav42 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $5,744 | +$912 +16% | 20 |
| 630d | cipherpilot | 350-374 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,361 | +$73 +3.1% | 20 |
| 630d | glarity | 350-374 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,734 | +$146 +3.1% | 20 |
| 630d | AcctToBeRetired | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,554 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 630d |  Prexpect2 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,194 | +$447 +7.2% | 20 |
| 630d | rtxhjtryujiryt | 325-349 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,242 | −$169 −7.5% | — |
| 630d | Monster24 | 325-349 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,655 | +$236 +6.5% | 20 |
| 630d |  RememberAmalek4 fills | 325-349 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $7,583 | −$5,710 −75% | — |
| 630d | GimmeMyMoney-009 | 325-349 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,721 | −$165 −9.6% | — |
| 630d |  Bertapotamous | 400-424 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,920 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 630d |  Debosnys | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,914 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 630d | Debosnys | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 630d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,698 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 630d | astromage5 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,817 | +$70 +0.4% | 20 |
| 631d |  thought | 325-349 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,207 | −$925 −22% | — |
| 631d | goldingboy8 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $101,772 | +$565 +0.6% | 20 |
| 631d | SCLSG | 325-349 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,520 | +$185 +7.3% | 20 |
| 631d |  Camarad2 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,376 | +$624 +18% | 20 |
| 631d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,830 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 631d |  VOID | 325-349 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$100 +10.0% | 20 |
| 631d | Monster24 | 350-374 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,797 | +$458 +12% | 20 |
| 631d | Monster24 | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,726 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 631d | Alee1201 | 350-374 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$348 +30% | 20 |
| 631d | Monster24 | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,726 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 631d | leiger3 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,910 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 631d | Gustav4 | 325-349 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$576 +46% | 20 |
| 631d | goldingboy2 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,594 | +$28 +0.4% | 20 |
| 631d | KiAr | 325-349 | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,653 | −$1,653 −100% | 20 |
| 631d | BestTimTam | 375-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 631d | oneday12 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $2,647 | +$3,389 +128% | 29 |
| 631d | Monster24 | 375-399 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,191 | +$134 +4.2% | 20 |
| 631d | openzone | 375-399 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $13,183 | +$404 +3.1% | 20 |
| 631d | Monster24 | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,809 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 631d | openzone | 325-349 | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,753 | +$1,893 +108% | 20 |
| 631d | AcctToBeRetired2 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$56 +1.4% | 20 |
| 631d | ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,616 | +$100 +0.9% | 20 |
| 631d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,045 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 631d | 0xeccdededcc4 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes36¢ → 100¢ | $4,300 | +$7,700 +179% | 34 |
| 631d |  414B | 325-349 | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $3,517 | −$3,517 −100% | 25 |
| 631d | RememberAmalek | 325-349 | BuyYes31¢ → 100¢ | $2,123 | +$4,792 +226% | 33 |
| 631d |  JohnThorn75 | 325-349 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,274 | −$1,274 −100% | 24 |
| 631d | JustRedeem | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,002 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 631d | AZwater | 450-474 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,449 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 631d | AZwater | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,880 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 631d | COOLBOY | 325-349 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $2,998 | −$2,998 −100% | 28 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between January 17, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and January 24, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 325-349 means the market gives it about 100%.