Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 560-579 | 100% | +79 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −3 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −12 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | −27 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | −23 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | −14 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | −13 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280d | Toporceanu | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,475 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  iceblue- | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,304 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | QServet5 | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,245 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 280d | irbisSS | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,342 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | asdasdrgdfg29 fills | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $132,541 | +$133 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | BaaDsHa | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,496 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d |  ggmggn | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,815 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d |  Zenef2 | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,341 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  414B | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,033 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,610 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | samponcudinti | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,203 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  isunou | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | Poiuztrewq | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  yesworld28 | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,084 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | Positive-Passing | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,183 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | Wealthy-SundialNew account | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  AlexTiger | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,034 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | CypherCrypt0 | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $4,386 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 560-579 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,469 | −$301 −4.7% | — |
| 280d | Spiteful-Signature | 560-579 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,141 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  KARMASUR | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $11,995 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  BoringPunter4 fills | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $132,284 | +$456 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d |  AgricultureSecretary | 560-579 | BuyYes>99¢ | $74,428 | +$75 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | Unique-Insurgence2 fills | 560-579 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $8,021 | −$4,130 −51% | — |
| 280d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 580+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $37,090 | +$203 +0.5% | 20 |
| 280d | leiger | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,506 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 280d |  noreasapa3 fills | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,560 | +$40 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d | ggmggn | 560-579 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,432 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 280d | 8x8jkni8MeAMkhe4L2fg43 fills | 560-579 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $4,312 | +$2,281 +53% | 30 |
| 280d |  badmoshbillu | 560-579 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,990 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d | CypherCrypt0 | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,378 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d | noreasapa | 560-579 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d |  lasiweijiasi4 fills | 580+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,214 | +$265 +4.3% | 21 |
| 280d |  Gustav43 fills | 560-579 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,244 | +$167 +1.2% | 20 |
| 280d | xuegao233 | 560-579 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,807 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 280d | Legal-BestsellerNew account | 580+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | −$22 −1.5% | — |
| 280d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 560-579 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$43 +0.4% | 20 |
| 280d |  ChunkyMonky | 560-579 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,930 | +$70 +1.0% | 20 |
| 280d |  Prexpect4 fills | 560-579 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $18,195 | +$354 +1.9% | 21 |
| 280d | Gustav43 fills | 580+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,355 | +$149 +2.8% | 21 |
| 280d | xuegao233 | 560-579 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,665 | +$22 +1.3% | 20 |
| 280d | KARMASUR | 580+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,388 | +$353 +3.1% | 21 |
| 280d |  rem1x | 560-579 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | −$83 −6.7% | — |
| 280d |  Parz1vaI | 560-579 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$86 +5.5% | 22 |
| 280d | Toporceanu | 560-579 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,683 | +$143 +5.3% | 22 |
| 280d |  Annica4 fills | 560-579 | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $7,573 | +$8,130 +107% | 29 |
| 280d | CypherCrypt0 | 560-579 | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | −$1,843 −147% | — |
| 280d |  lolboy4D | 580+ | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,192 | −$1,192 −100% | 30 |
| 280d | Annica4 fills | 580+ | BuyYes44¢ → 0¢ | $5,041 | −$5,041 −100% | 30 |
| 280d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 580+ | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $2,272 | −$2,272 −100% | 29 |
| 280d | JuanitoBalderrama | 560-579 | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | −$986 −80% | — |
| 280d |  triple-purple | 580+ | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,095 | −$1,095 −100% | 30 |
| 280d | SuperBet69 | 560-579 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $2,528 | −$1,727 −68% | — |
| 280d | ggmggn2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $2,589 | −$2,589 −100% | 30 |
| 280d | samponcudinti | 560-579 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,189 | +$193 +6.1% | 22 |
| 280d | Positive-Passing | 580+ | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$186 +9.3% | 23 |
| 280d | CypherCrypt0 | 560-579 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$340 +11% | 23 |
| 280d |  dyIam | 560-579 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$218 +12% | 24 |
| 280d | smartttt | 560-579 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,761 | +$330 +12% | 24 |
| 280d | idgaf1984 | 560-579 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$194 +16% | 25 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 2 12:00 PM ET to January 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 560-579 means the market gives it about 100%.