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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 275-299 | 100% | +86 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <250 | 0% | −37 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250-274 | 0% | −42 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325-349 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 623d |  Therealsmurf | 300-324 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,054 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 623d | Therealsmurf | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,379 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 623d | Aco-632 | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,527 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  Camarad | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,193 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  ElonSpam | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,563 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 623d | Quantwiz | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,950 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  HoshinoAI | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,039 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 300-324 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,490 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  Blackpill | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,549 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  asdfasfdasfdas | 325-349 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,511 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 623d | west15 | 300-324 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,292 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 623d | RandomJake | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 623d | F-00 | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,105 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 623d | liyoua | 325-349 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 623d |  Euan | 275-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,048 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 623d | Rogu | 275-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,841 | −$15 −0.3% | — |
| 623d |  Prexpect | 275-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,947 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 624d | ElonSpam | 275-299 | BuyYes100¢ | $3,121 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 624d | cigarettes3 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $4,553 | +$866 +19% | 20 |
| 624d | Sirius109 | 275-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,339 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 624d |  PredictionYogi | 275-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,263 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 624d |  Gustav4 | 275-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,343 | +$64 +1.0% | 20 |
| 624d | SirDragon | 275-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 624d | AZwater4 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $11,079 | +$647 +5.8% | 22 |
| 624d | Aco-632 | 275-299 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,483 | +$46 +3.1% | 20 |
| 624d | Monster24 | 275-299 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,191 | +$130 +3.1% | 20 |
| 624d | Harmful-Emotion | 275-299 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,179 | +$98 +3.1% | 20 |
| 624d | fengzi123 | 275-299 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$104 +5.3% | 20 |
| 624d | noovd2 fills | 275-299 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $3,788 | +$986 +26% | 20 |
| 624d | Adishon | 325-349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,795 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 624d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,949 | +$273 +6.9% | 20 |
| 624d | Lavs3838 | 300-324 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$116 +8.3% | 20 |
| 624d | AZwater | 325-349 | BuyNo100¢ | $4,216 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 624d |  catasus4 fills | 275-299 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $7,114 | +$1,092 +15% | 20 |
| 624d | Adishon | 275-299 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | −$345 −25% | — |
| 624d | wokerjoesleeper | 325-349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 624d | wokerjoesleeper | 300-324 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$212 +16% | 20 |
| 624d | wokerjoesleeper | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,809 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 624d | cigarettes2 fills | 325-349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,632 | +$48 +1.3% | 20 |
| 624d |  luckystone315 | 325-349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,093 | +$25 +1.2% | 20 |
| 624d | glarity3 fills | 325-349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,913 | +$72 +1.5% | 20 |
| 624d |  RememberAmalek | 325-349 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,117 | +$43 +2.0% | 20 |
| 624d | cigarettes | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,836 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 624d | astromage | 250-274 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,538 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 624d | cipherpilot | 325-349 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,072 | +$49 +2.4% | 20 |
| 624d | RememberAmalek | 300-324 | SellYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,790 | +$1,790 +100% | — |
| 624d |  qskdfsadvkndskjfg2 fills | 300-324 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,308 | −$2,308 −100% | 22 |
| 624d | glarity2 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,518 | +$92 +2.0% | 20 |
| 624d | glarity | 250-274 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,910 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 624d | catasus | 275-299 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,849 | +$1,849 +100% | — |
| 624d | oneday1 | 275-299 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,795 | −$1,795 −100% | 20 |
| 624d | asdfasfdasfdas | 350-374 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,561 | −$20 −1.3% | — |
| 624d | RememberAmalek | 300-324 | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,751 | −$1,751 −100% | 22 |
| 624d | catasus | 275-299 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,302 | −$1,225 −53% | — |
| 624d | RememberAmalek4 fills | 250-274 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,549 | +$337 +2.7% | 21 |
| 624d | 0xeccdededcc | 275-299 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,354 | +$481 +36% | 29 |
| 624d | Alee1201 | 250-274 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,472 | −$25 −1.0% | — |
| 624d | anonboi2 | 275-299 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$650 +33% | 28 |
| 624d | catasus | 250-274 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,295 | +$154 +2.4% | 21 |
| 624d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 250-274 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,518 | +$633 +14% | 24 |
Note: Lower options can be found here: https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31-lower-options This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between January 24, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 275-299 means the market gives it about 100%.