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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140+ | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-49 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-69 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 70-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-109 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 110-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-129 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 130-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 283d |  ggmggn2 fills | 110-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $26,024 | −$26 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | btacc | 100-109 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,080 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | ggmggn | 50-59 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,659 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | btacc | 70-79 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 284d |  LinaBell🦊 | 90-99 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | 0x59BA | 110-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,345 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | IO. | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,915 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | ShivaLemire | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | SuperBet69 | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $5,473 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | Houdray | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,364 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | ggmggn | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,966 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d |  HolyMoses7 | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | ggmggn | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,236 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 285d |  KARMASUR2 fills | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,478 | +$23 +0.7% | 20 |
| 285d | KARMASUR | 140+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$37 +3.1% | 21 |
| 285d | ggmggn3 fills | 120-129 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,668 | +$73 +0.4% | 20 |
| 285d | HolyMoses7 | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | Simon4s | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | ggmggn | 80-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,225 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | LinaBell🦊 | 110-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,081 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | 0x59BA | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,344 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 285d | Poory | 140+ | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | −$273 −27% | — |
| 285d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 130-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,402 | +$102 +1.9% | 20 |
| 285d | Gingerale1809 | 140+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,916 | +$104 +1.8% | 20 |
| 285d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 120-129 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,498 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | cigarettes | 120-129 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,639 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 285d | SuperBet69 | 140+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,155 | +$42 +2.0% | 21 |
| 285d | cigarettes | 130-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,613 | +$30 +1.8% | 20 |
| 285d |  Annica | 120-129 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,008 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | Poory | 140+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | +$20 +2.0% | 20 |
| 286d | ggmggn | 110-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,711 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | MovingForward | 60-69 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,986 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 286d | 48cb | 90-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,012 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 286d | aelicabal | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,398 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 286d | Simon4s | 50-59 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,198 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | payose | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,391 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 286d | Annica | 60-69 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 286d | Annica | 50-59 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,929 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | weather.fanatic | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,021 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | MovingForward | 60-69 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,837 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 287d | btacc | 70-79 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 287d | btacc | 100-109 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,288 | +$27 +2.1% | 20 |
| 287d | btacc | 60-69 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 287d | 0x59BA | 40-49 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,395 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 287d | payose | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,173 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 3 12:00 PM ET to January 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140+ means the market gives it about 100%.