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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 190-214 | 100% | +87 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −34 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 279d | machiavelia | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,423 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | Gentle-Caliber | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,504 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 279d |  VibeTrader | 190-214 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,037 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | Yanncll | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,130 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | nzhz | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,180 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | nzhz | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,181 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | MovingForward | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | MovingForward | 190-214 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,176 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | zhaixingxing | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,779 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | cucuruzblindat | 190-214 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,791 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 279d |  eI0zwvzk | 190-214 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,325 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | overestimated-crow | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | Ilovemusk | 190-214 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,782 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | CypherCrypt0 | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,422 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 279d |  Vivalavidaaaaa | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,016 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | 0x265f…a448 | 190-214 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,756 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | gagagougou | 190-214 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,198 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | Poory | 190-214 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d |  BoringPunter2 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,096 | +$38 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 190-214 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,431 | +$299 +5.5% | 22 |
| 279d | gagagougou4 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,849 | +$32 +0.3% | 20 |
| 279d | 0x59BA | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,545 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d |  Leirth | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,625 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 279d | Wicked-Mayonnaise2 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,386 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 279d | BoringPunter | 215-239 | SellNo100¢ | $1,264 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 279d | CypherCrypt0 | 215-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,381 | +$46 +1.0% | 20 |
| 280d | xninjax | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,254 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 280d | Thin-Print | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $5,077 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | jamesab | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,777 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | besmart2025 | 190-214 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$22 +1.5% | 20 |
| 280d | venezuelain | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | forestk | 190-214 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,042 | +$53 +1.8% | 21 |
| 280d | cucuruzblindat | 190-214 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | +$40 +3.3% | 21 |
| 280d | MovingForward | 190-214 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | +$46 +4.0% | 21 |
| 280d | Ilovemusk | 190-214 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$84 +4.9% | 22 |
| 280d | SuperBet69 | 190-214 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,216 | +$78 +6.4% | 22 |
| 280d | PredictionYogi6 fills | 240+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,695 | +$115 +0.6% | 20 |
| 280d | lisenka | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,074 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  awaylot | 190-214 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | +$162 +9.9% | 23 |
| 280d |  lasiweijiasi3 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,000 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d |  ggmggn | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 280d | crypto_nerd | 190-214 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | +$143 +14% | 24 |
| 280d | PredictionYogi | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  Shriker | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,163 | +$21 +0.4% | 20 |
| 280d | Vivalavidaaaaa | 215-239 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$1,023 +17% | 25 |
| 280d | awaylot | 240+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,595 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 280d | Gentle-Caliber | 240+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,498 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 280d | eI0zwvzk | 190-214 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$356 +18% | 25 |
| 280d | cigarettes | 240+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,386 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 280d | cigarettes | 215-239 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$263 +23% | 26 |
| 280d |  Mei-ji | 215-239 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,162 | +$273 +23% | 26 |
| 280d | besmart2025 | 240+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,685 | +$19 +1.1% | 20 |
| 280d | nickanc93 | 215-239 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,787 | +$426 +24% | 26 |
| 280d | ggmggn2 fills | 190-214 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $4,192 | +$2,003 +48% | 30 |
| 280d | influenz.eth | 240+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 280d | Trusting-Running | 240+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | +$48 +3.1% | 21 |
| 280d |  BVahan | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,712 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 240+ | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,739 | −$308 −8.2% | — |
| 280d | ggmggn | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | bipbipbop | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,518 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
LaMecheMoon1,260 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 8 12:00 PM ET to January 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 190-214 means the market gives it about 100%.