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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195–209 | 100% | +60 pts | +86 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <90 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90–104 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 105–119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120–134 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 135–149 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165–179 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180–194 | 0% | −39 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–224 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–239 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–254 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 255+ | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 448d |  RealDonaldMusk | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,576 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 448d |  Cronus66 | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,906 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 448d |  ElonSpam | 225–239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,628 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 449d | TinyKate | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,662 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 449d |  Elonurmom | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,048 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 449d | timler | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,696 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 449d |  MrLucker | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,848 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 449d | elPolloLoco | 210–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,823 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 449d |  MBB3 | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,618 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 449d |  billinaire | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,989 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 449d | glarity | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,745 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d | nonkenny90 | 255+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,221 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 449d | ElonSpam5 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,663 | +$89 +0.3% | 20 |
| 449d | failedgenius | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 449d | RealDonaldMusk | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,575 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 449d | idhjdfo9u23urjp2jt2-wu2 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,292 | +$67 +0.6% | 20 |
| 449d |  OuchMyBalls | 195–209 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,927 | −$72 −0.9% | — |
| 449d | CoolBeans420 | 210–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 449d | ShivaLemire | 195–209 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,836 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 449d | LazyWanker | 195–209 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 449d | astromage2 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,724 | +$61 +2.2% | 20 |
| 449d | Kinui | 195–209 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,214 | +$68 +3.1% | 20 |
| 449d | MBB3 | 195–209 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,571 | +$49 +3.1% | 20 |
| 449d | Ma12mamP | 210–224 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,185 | −$61 −5.1% | — |
| 449d |  ahahaa66174 | 210–224 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,123 | −$164 −5.3% | — |
| 449d | 0xeccdededcc | 195–209 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | +$90 +6.4% | 20 |
| 449d | glarity | 225–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,868 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 449d | BGN | 180–194 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,383 | +$297 +12% | 20 |
| 449d |  catasus | 195–209 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,566 | +$195 +12% | 20 |
| 449d |  lolboy4D | 180–194 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$355 +18% | 20 |
| 449d |  Gustav4 | 180–194 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$656 +22% | 20 |
| 449d | ggily611a | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d | Jorah | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,030 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d | Falcon1-444 | 240–254 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,065 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 449d | zeus763 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,987 | +$237 +3.4% | 20 |
| 449d | Falcon1-444 | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,070 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d |  Sdeser83848 | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,077 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d | meehai | 210–224 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$88 +6.5% | 20 |
| 449d |  TheUnconsiousStatistician | 210–224 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$66 +6.2% | 20 |
| 449d | zeus76 | 180–194 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | −$254 −25% | — |
| 449d | ElonSpam5 fills | 240–254 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,049 | +$186 +1.0% | 20 |
| 449d | DenisCO | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,633 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d | cigarettes | 180–194 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$111 +11% | 20 |
| 449d | cigarettes | 210–224 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$101 +10% | 20 |
| 449d | kkshoucang | 180–194 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,813 | −$185 −10% | — |
| 449d |  Oompah..Loompah4 fills | 180–194 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $4,779 | +$1,988 +42% | 28 |
| 449d | Puxin | 180–194 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,248 | +$274 +22% | 20 |
| 449d | castlebravo | 180–194 | SellYes15¢ → 0¢ | $1,748 | +$1,748 +100% | — |
| 449d | Puxin | 165–179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,248 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 449d |  Skinfeeler500 | 180–194 | SellYes59¢ → 0¢ | $1,049 | +$1,049 +100% | — |
| 449d | xiaohui18 | 180–194 | SellYes62¢ → 0¢ | $1,439 | +$1,439 +100% | — |
| 449d | Gustav4 | 165–179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,141 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 449d | Oily-Struggle | 180–194 | SellYes78¢ → 0¢ | $1,197 | +$1,197 +100% | — |
| 449d | lucky132 fills | 195–209 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $4,415 | −$4,415 −100% | 20 |
| 449d | 2morethandozen3 fills | 165–179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,831 | +$38 +0.7% | 20 |
| 449d | 2morethandozen | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,086 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 449d |  thefakenick | 180–194 | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $1,367 | −$1,367 −100% | 20 |
| 449d | almostlegal | 195–209 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,221 | −$1,221 −100% | 20 |
| 449d | Oompah..Loompah3 fills | 165–179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,884 | +$163 +3.3% | 21 |
| 449d | zeus76 | 195–209 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,210 | −$1,210 −100% | 29 |
FreeCityIndividual938 shares
EbalVRot217 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between July 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and July 25, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 195–209 means the market gives it about 100%.