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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104d | Lined-Macadamia | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 104d |  Espagan | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,197 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 104d | Pricey-Million | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,418 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 104d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,684 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 104d |  LinaBell🦊 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,662 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 104d | BinaryBaron3 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,149 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 104d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,602 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 105d |  Gustav4 | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,535 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 105d |  y111m11 | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,660 | +$13 +0.8% | 20 |
| 105d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,620 | +$30 +1.1% | 20 |
| 105d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,277 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 105d | anon.1980.123 | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,890 | +$65 +1.7% | 21 |
| 105d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $10,921 | +$728 +6.7% | 22 |
| 105d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,623 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 105d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | <40 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,772 | +$482 +8.4% | 22 |
| 105d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,955 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 105d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,615 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 105d | Hurtful-SnowNew account | 40-64 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,137 | +$619 +20% | 33 |
| 105d | Adorable-Initial | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$94 +1.0% | 20 |
| 106d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$21 +1.8% | 20 |
| 107d | lankeleads | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$72 +6.4% | 21 |
| 108d |  Boss7 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,732 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft4,650 shares
A9gain4,200 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 2 12:00 PM ET to July 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.