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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +97 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −52 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −60 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87d | 0x7111…7c212 fills | 65-89 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,585 | −$37 −1.4% | — |
| 87d | Spotless-Investigator-Overcoat | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,161 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 87d |  LinaBell🦊 | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,361 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 87d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,918 | +$27 +0.4% | 20 |
| 87d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,053 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 87d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,885 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 87d | luca882 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,735 | +$35 +0.9% | 20 |
| 87d | luca88 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 87d | d008 | 65-89 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$48 +3.2% | 21 |
| 87d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$32 +3.0% | 21 |
| 87d | luca88 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 87d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,080 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 87d | pingfan666 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,378 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 87d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,293 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 87d | CakeBake2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,180 | −$481 −22% | — |
| 87d | Rickz88 | 90-114 | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,339 | −$857 −64% | — |
| 87d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE62 fills | 90-114 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,712 | −$350 −13% | — |
| 87d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,103 | +$141 +2.3% | 21 |
| 87d | 0x7111…7c21 | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$62 +4.3% | 21 |
| 87d | 0x7111…7c21 | 40-64 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 87d | pupupuup2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$935 +13% | 23 |
| 87d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$114 +11% | 23 |
| 87d | karen2p | 40-64 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | +$462 +29% | 26 |
| 87d | startrader | 40-64 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$300 +18% | 24 |
| 87d | Cejgu | 40-64 | SellYes91¢ → 0¢ | $1,548 | +$1,548 +100% | — |
| 87d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $2,627 | −$2,627 −100% | 20 |
| 87d | nbjui1 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 87d | buputong | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 87d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,095 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 87d |  triple-purple | <40 | BuyYes52¢ → 0¢ | $1,217 | −$1,217 −100% | 28 |
| 87d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 87d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,187 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 87d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 88d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,251 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | gordontradedc | 40-64 | SellNo47¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | −$1,288 −113% | — |
| 88d | cornprovide | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,058 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d |  Boss7 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,207 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft5,005 shares
0xPoni1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 20 12:00 PM ET to July 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.