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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150–164 | 100% | +53 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <90 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90–104 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 105–119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120–134 | 0% | −39 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 135–149 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165–179 | 0% | −41 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180–194 | 0% | −2 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 195–209 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–224 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–239 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–254 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 255+ | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 441d | peterzwegat | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,392 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 441d |  CannaDough | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,216 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | timler | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | dropthevictor | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,923 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  ThePortrait | 180–194 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,002 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | coco040678 | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,010 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  Gustav4 | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,678 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  cryptowhat | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  catasus | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,051 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | Poiuztrewq | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,953 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | kari0909 | 165–179 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,813 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | xbsuwrkfmdl372 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,926 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | luoli | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,555 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  Prexpect2 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,269 | +$241 +3.8% | 21 |
| 442d | cipherpilot | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,212 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | glarity2 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,264 | +$115 +1.0% | 20 |
| 442d |  OuchMyBalls | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,433 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 442d | 0xtrading2 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,180 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | ShivaLemire | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,494 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 442d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $6,249 | +$612 +9.8% | 22 |
| 442d | Prexpect | 165–179 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 442d | astromage3 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,424 | +$58 +1.3% | 20 |
| 442d |  Cronus66 | 150–164 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 442d | z0vulon | 150–164 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$42 +2.1% | 21 |
| 442d | coco040678 | 150–164 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | +$63 +3.3% | 21 |
| 442d |  Cookedtan | 165–179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,114 | +$136 +6.4% | 22 |
| 442d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $9,432 | +$580 +6.2% | 22 |
| 442d | astromage | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,114 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | ggily611a | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | JUSTICEYOON | 150–164 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | +$165 +9.9% | 23 |
| 442d | glarity | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,928 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | leiger2 fills | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,417 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d | 0xtrading | 150–164 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,324 | −$144 −11% | — |
| 442d |  MBB3 | 150–164 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,909 | +$65 +3.4% | 21 |
| 442d | cipherpilot | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,257 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  Skinfeeler500 | 150–164 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,035 | −$242 −12% | — |
| 442d | catasus | 150–164 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,916 | +$884 +15% | 23 |
| 442d | afaus2 fills | 135–149 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,058 | −$381 −12% | — |
| 442d | ihatelee | 135–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | catasus | 135–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,219 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | tigerbearlion | 150–164 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | +$137 +10% | 23 |
| 442d | DjKeingeld | 135–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,746 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Prexpect | 135–149 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,840 | +$160 +1.6% | 20 |
| 442d | Gustav4 | 135–149 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,781 | +$219 +12% | 23 |
| 442d | Gustav4 | 135–149 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,510 | −$160 −11% | — |
| 442d |  arcisdead2 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,834 | +$100 +1.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  CallmeEuphoria | 165–179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$53 +4.2% | 21 |
| 442d | pol76 | 165–179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,882 | +$126 +4.4% | 21 |
| 442d | meehai | 165–179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | +$94 +6.5% | 22 |
| 442d | Mhhhhhh | 165–179 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$88 +7.6% | 22 |
| 442d | Hawkie | 165–179 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,828 | +$425 +11% | 23 |
| 442d | ElonSpam5 fills | 195–209 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,940 | +$518 +4.3% | 20 |
| 442d |  Naichli | 165–179 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,973 | +$441 +11% | 23 |
| 442d | arcisdead | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,181 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | afaus | 135–149 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$100 +9.3% | 22 |
| 442d | ElonSpam6 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,018 | +$156 +0.7% | 20 |
| 442d | CoolBeans420 | 180–194 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$41 +2.1% | 21 |
| 442d | edison668 | 225–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,120 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Muskadelic | 150–164 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | −$572 −47% | — |
| 442d | montty | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between July 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and July 25, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 150–164 means the market gives it about 100%.