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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150–164 | 100% | +47 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <90 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90–104 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 105–119 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120–134 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 135–149 | 0% | −43 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165–179 | 0% | −17 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180–194 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 195–209 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–224 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–239 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–254 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 255–269 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 270+ | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 462d |  MBB3 | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,423 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 462d | timler | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,353 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 462d |  Elonurmom | 150–164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 463d |  rWallStreetBets💎2 fills | 150–164 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,151 | −$548 −25% | — |
| 463d | 0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050 | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,901 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d |  Prexpect | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,496 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 463d | glarity3 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,616 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 463d | glarity | 165–179 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,194 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 463d | leiger | 165–179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 463d | cigarettes | 165–179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$30 +2.6% | 21 |
| 463d |  Behumble | 150–164 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,486 | +$61 +2.5% | 21 |
| 463d | traeze | 150–164 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,575 | −$103 −4.0% | — |
| 463d | Tryingtowinn | 150–164 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$58 −5.3% | — |
| 463d | ggily611a | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,283 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 463d | Diaforce | 150–164 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | −$57 −5.4% | — |
| 463d | GooseEgg2 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,393 | +$389 +8.9% | 22 |
| 463d | MBB3 | 150–164 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,353 | +$71 +5.3% | 22 |
| 463d | nonkenny90 | 210–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 463d |  NoYesMaybeLater | 165–179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$104 +4.2% | 21 |
| 463d | Hawkie | 165–179 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,733 | +$91 +5.3% | 22 |
| 463d | HolyFak69 | 150–164 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | −$139 −11% | — |
| 463d | 0x82c6c1a53290fba0c7a18fc40d2c9206f03f2e5 | 150–164 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,326 | −$175 −7.5% | — |
| 463d |  catasus3 fills | 150–164 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $5,437 | +$1,465 +27% | 26 |
| 463d |  SqPeg | 165–179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$149 +6.0% | 22 |
| 463d | Amitp | 135–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,039 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 463d | glarity | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,045 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d |  junseokletsg02 fills | 150–164 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,286 | −$772 −34% | — |
| 463d | ggily611a2 fills | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,385 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d |  MerGe | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d |  PotatMD | 150–164 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,195 | −$647 −20% | — |
| 463d | GooseEgg | 135–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,283 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 463d |  PredictionYogi | 150–164 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | +$210 +16% | 24 |
| 463d | catasus | 135–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,726 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 463d | hasso422 | 135–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 463d | catasus2 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,930 | +$329 +8.4% | 22 |
| 463d | Gang172 | 135–149 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,524 | +$44 +2.9% | 21 |
| 463d |  KatArc | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,048 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d |  TrueLove | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,012 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d | GooseEgg | 135–149 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,232 | +$53 +2.4% | 21 |
| 463d | ggily611a | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,100 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 463d |  CannaDough | 135–149 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,917 | −$33 −1.7% | — |
| 463d |  Debosnys2 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,349 | +$73 +1.2% | 20 |
| 463d | Tryingtowinn | 150–164 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$148 +15% | 23 |
| 463d | glarity3 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,035 | +$26 +0.4% | 20 |
| 463d | AZwater | 180–194 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,939 | +$61 +1.2% | 20 |
| 463d | GooseEgg3 fills | 165–179 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $5,014 | +$654 +13% | 23 |
| 463d | AZwater2 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,555 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 463d | Dingoose4 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$216 +2.2% | 21 |
| 463d | alasdov | 150–164 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$316 +26% | 26 |
| 463d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,003 | +$136 +1.7% | 20 |
| 463d | meehai | 165–179 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$280 +27% | 26 |
| 463d | edc-10 | 135–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,107 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 463d | Debosnys | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,329 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 463d | catasus | 150–164 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | −$732 −49% | — |
| 463d | junseokletsg0 | 150–164 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,591 | +$652 +41% | 28 |
| 463d | astromage2 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,450 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 463d | CannaDough | 135–149 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,902 | +$45 +2.4% | 21 |
| 463d | leiger2 fills | 135–149 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $8,348 | +$405 +4.9% | 21 |
| 463d | cipherpilot | 135–149 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,459 | +$659 +19% | 24 |
| 463d | nonkenny904 fills | 270+ | SellNo>99¢ | $15,180 | −$29 −0.2% | — |
rWallStreetBets💎11,460 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between July 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and July 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 150–164 means the market gives it about 100%.