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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +82 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −75 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100d |  Espagan | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,159 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 100d | sunshinesss | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,203 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 100d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,618 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 100d | Bankrupt-Loser | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,565 | +$105 +1.6% | 21 |
| 100d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | <40 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,045 | +$550 +18% | 25 |
| 100d | jesterthegoose | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,902 | +$79 +4.2% | 21 |
| 100d |  Green.Gold | <40 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$47 +4.2% | 21 |
| 100d | JustMeZ | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,534 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 100d |  y111m11 | <40 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$139 +11% | 23 |
| 100d | Bananchik1999 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | leiger | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | AnonymousPerson | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | Likable-Attendance | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | luca882 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,959 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 101d | nbjui1 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 101d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,653 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | JustMeZ | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,645 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 101d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,149 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | cornprovide | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d |  BigMackyG | <40 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,886 | +$1,465 +78% | 28 |
| 101d | Assured-Familiarity | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,260 | +$15 +0.7% | 20 |
| 101d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,536 | +$105 +1.4% | 20 |
| 101d | suifeng668 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,500 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | buputong | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 101d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,033 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | Adorable-Initial | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$43 +0.4% | 20 |
| 101d | Espagan | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$160 +8.0% | 22 |
| 102d | Liam221 | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$65 +5.3% | 21 |
| 102d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,154 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 103d | hooooooooo | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,600 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
hochnaesigezicke2,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 6 12:00 PM ET to July 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.