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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145–159 | 100% | +73 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115–129 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 130–144 | 0% | −41 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160–174 | 0% | −4 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–189 | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190–204 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 205–219 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220–234 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 235–249 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–264 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 265–279 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280–294 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 295+ | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 483d |  catasus2 fills | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 483d |  Elonurmom | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 483d |  CannaDough | 160–174 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,059 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 483d | StopNoticing | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,614 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 483d | alasdov | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,674 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 483d | Fuzzy-Peace | 160–174 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 483d |  MBB3 | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,224 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 483d |  HTFK | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,821 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 483d | friendoffriend | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,352 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 483d |  Comeback12345 | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $27,075 | −$27 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | leiger | 175–189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,127 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | leiger | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,079 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | afaus | 160–174 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,548 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 484d |  Debosnys | 160–174 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,970 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 484d |  MrLucker | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | Debosnys | 145–159 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,518 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | MyNameIsDarkKnight | 145–159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,568 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 484d | kozumi | 160–174 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,879 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 484d | glarity2 fills | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,423 | +$46 +0.6% | 20 |
| 484d | Pitter | 145–159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,296 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 484d | catasus3 fills | 145–159 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $7,543 | +$699 +9.3% | 20 |
| 484d | hasso422 | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 484d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,347 | +$54 +1.0% | 20 |
| 484d |  Naichli3 fills | 145–159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,416 | +$235 +3.7% | 20 |
| 484d | astromage | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,205 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 484d | leiger | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,974 | +$111 +1.0% | 20 |
| 484d | MBB3 | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,210 | +$15 +1.2% | 20 |
| 484d | Ignite4 | 145–159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | +$24 +1.2% | 20 |
| 484d | cigarettes2 fills | 160–174 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,611 | +$106 +4.1% | 20 |
| 484d | Comeback12345 | 145–159 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $26,561 | +$541 +2.0% | 20 |
| 484d |  Cookedtan | 160–174 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,267 | +$61 +1.4% | 20 |
| 484d | noovd4 fills | 145–159 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $8,585 | +$679 +7.9% | 20 |
| 484d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 145–159 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,440 | +$114 +3.3% | 20 |
| 484d |  0xdc3E831cad | 145–159 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$40 +3.2% | 20 |
| 484d | crypto911 | 145–159 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,616 | +$84 +3.2% | 20 |
| 484d |  0943 | 145–159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $18,689 | +$779 +4.2% | 20 |
| 484d | chocolate123 | 145–159 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$38 +3.2% | 20 |
| 484d | ShivaLemire | 145–159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$50 +4.2% | 20 |
| 484d | Debosnys | 145–159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $10,560 | +$440 +4.2% | 20 |
| 484d | StopNoticing | 145–159 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,088 | +$533 +7.5% | 20 |
| 484d | StopNoticing | 130–144 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,088 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | afaus | 160–174 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | +$90 +6.2% | 20 |
| 484d |  Behumble | 145–159 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | +$84 +7.5% | 20 |
| 484d | astromage2 fills | 175–189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,802 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 484d | astromage | 295+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,137 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | glarity | 175–189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,547 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 484d | glarity | 190–204 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,547 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | berkshire | 190–204 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,410 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | catasus | 130–144 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,564 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | Naichli | 130–144 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,731 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | Pitter | 130–144 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,348 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 484d |  ArcLing | 130–144 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,059 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 484d |  AgricultureSecretary | 130–144 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,475 | +$89 +0.4% | 20 |
| 484d | catasus | 130–144 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 484d | XXXXXXXXXXXXX-213 | 130–144 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,534 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 484d | Siziriv | 145–159 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | −$160 −8.7% | — |
| 484d |  Prexpect | 145–159 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$100 +9.9% | 20 |
| 484d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 175–189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,980 | +$40 +0.8% | 20 |
| 484d | astromage | 190–204 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,082 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 484d | edc-102 fills | 130–144 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,972 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between June 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and June 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 145–159 means the market gives it about 100%.