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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +38 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 118d | 0xMan77 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 118d | JustMeZ | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,825 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 118d | logesh32 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,968 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 118d |  upont | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,264 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 118d | upont2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,661 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 118d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,974 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 118d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,047 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,656 | +$205 +1.2% | 20 |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,242 | +$169 +5.2% | 21 |
| 119d | Konium | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,837 | +$22 +1.2% | 20 |
| 119d | JustMeZ | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,799 | +$27 +1.5% | 21 |
| 119d | 0x1f05…ba7b | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,472 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,038 | +$34 +1.7% | 21 |
| 119d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,256 | +$138 +1.9% | 21 |
| 119d | upont2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,786 | +$31 +0.3% | 20 |
| 119d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,356 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,040 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 119d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,873 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 119d | carboyant | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,869 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,035 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 119d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,523 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $15,331 | +$377 +2.5% | 20 |
| 119d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,786 | +$186 +2.7% | 20 |
| 119d | Separate-Beast2 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,046 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 119d | liq2 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,995 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 119d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,160 | +$136 +1.3% | 20 |
| 119d | Separate-Beast | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,080 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,030 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 119d | credence0918 | 65-89 | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,992 | +$1,075 +54% | 28 |
| 119d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,520 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 119d | win-win-win99 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 119d | ExpectedValue098 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,055 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 119d | lankeleads | <40 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,301 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 119d | 0x1f05…ba7b | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$42 +3.9% | 21 |
| 119d |  Boss7 | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 120d | Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,344 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 120d | AlphaOracle001 | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 120d | HuatzTTM2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,027 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 121d | anon.1980.123 | <40 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,419 | +$91 +6.4% | 21 |
| 122d | bupinbubo | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,770 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d | warriror | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 123d | Irondo | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,956 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft5,111 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 18 12:00 PM ET to June 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.