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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +44 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −60 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −29 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114d | zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzczzzzzzzzzzzzzzz | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,296 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 114d | logesh32 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,203 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 114d |  AndreaPirlo | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,994 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 114d | Jasith | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,047 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 114d |  Annica3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,680 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 114d | Annica | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,828 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 114d | lankeleads | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,147 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 114d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 114d | win-win-win99 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 114d | PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,724 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 114d | win-win-win99 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 114d |  Gustav4 | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,156 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 114d |  jesterthegoose | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,382 | +$41 +1.2% | 20 |
| 114d | lankeleads | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$22 +2.1% | 21 |
| 114d | JustMeZ | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,138 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 114d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 114d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,140 | +$23 +1.1% | 20 |
| 114d | Randomcnobodykins | 90-114 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | −$31 −2.9% | — |
| 114d |  y111m11 | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,048 | +$50 +2.5% | 21 |
| 114d | Jasith | 90-114 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$40 +4.0% | 21 |
| 114d |  upont3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,351 | +$462 +6.3% | 22 |
| 115d | upont4 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $56,820 | +$142 +0.3% | 20 |
| 115d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,438 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 115d | PredictionYogi | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,579 | +$24 +1.5% | 20 |
| 115d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,914 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d |  goatyishere | 90-114 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | −$639 −46% | — |
| 115d | goatyishere | 90-114 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$162 +9.0% | 22 |
| 115d | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,530 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,144 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 115d | Lined-Macadamia | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 115d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,350 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 115d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,356 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | Rickz88 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,539 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 115d | emptyecolog | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,200 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | emptyecolog | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,179 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 115d | buputong | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,800 | +$58 +1.2% | 20 |
| 115d | suifeng668 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$41 +1.2% | 20 |
| 115d | nbjui12 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,500 | +$74 +1.3% | 20 |
| 115d | dafei888 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,600 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 115d | pingfan666 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,390 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 115d | luca882 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$93 +1.9% | 20 |
| 115d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $9,970 | +$902 +9.1% | 22 |
| 115d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | +$28 +1.3% | 20 |
| 115d | ppobb1123 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,033 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,957 | +$43 +2.2% | 21 |
| 115d | NeoOracle | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | win-win-win99 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | 0xMan77 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,449 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 115d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,486 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 115d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $3,886 | −$3,886 −100% | 22 |
| 115d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,164 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | win-win-win99 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 116d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $8,854 | −$8,854 −100% | 20 |
| 116d | NotAnInsider69420 | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 0¢ | $1,553 | −$1,553 −100% | 20 |
| 116d | Sterlink | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,531 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 116d | Sterlink | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,535 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft14,532 shares
Mr.Frog🐸400 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 22 12:00 PM ET to June 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.