| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 445 | 56¢ → 82¢ | $365 | +$116 +47% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 451 | 65¢ → 80¢ | $361 | +$69 +23% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 377 | 55¢ → 91¢ | $342 | +$133 +64% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 912 | 21¢ → 35¢ | $322 | +$135 +72% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 503 | 66¢ → 51¢ | $254 | −$77 −23% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 290 | 60¢ → 83¢ | $241 | +$67 +38% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,545 | 11¢ → 15¢ | $229 | +$64 +38% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 311 | 53¢ → 59¢ | $182 | +$18 +11% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?Ends in 256d | No | 355 | 55¢ → 49¢ | $172 | −$25 −13% |
| Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?Ends in 226d | Yes | 1,063 | 9¢ → 14¢ | $151 | +$58 +62% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 216 | 57¢ → 67¢ | $144 | +$20 +17% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 548 | 34¢ → 25¢ | $137 | −$50 −27% |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 200 | 60¢ → 60¢ | $120 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,500 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $89 | +$15 +21% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 500 | 14¢ → 17¢ | $85 | +$16 +23% |
| Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?Ends in 12d | Yes | 256 | 33¢ → 32¢ | $82 | −$4 −4.3% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | No | 414 | 18¢ → 19¢ | $77 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 1,160 | 16¢ → 6¢ | $64 | −$117 −65% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 2,717 | 5¢ → 2¢ | $52 | −$89 −63% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 905 | 6¢ → 6¢ | $51 | −$4 −7.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 150 | 36¢ → 31¢ | $47 | −$7 −13% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 776 | 9¢ → 6¢ | $43 | −$27 −39% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 532 | 17¢ → 7¢ | $37 | −$53 −59% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 71 | 61¢ → 53¢ | $37 | −$6 −14% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 450 | 15¢ → 8¢ | $34 | −$33 −49% |
| Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Ends ended | No | 527 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $33 | −$37 −53% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 140 | 31¢ → 19¢ | $26 | −$18 −41% |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 31 | 29¢ → 68¢ | $21 | +$12 +135% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 100 | 21¢ → 21¢ | $21 | −$1 −4.4% |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 3¢ → 2¢ | $18 | −$16 −47% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 255 | 15¢ → 7¢ | $18 | −$21 −54% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 4,700 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $16 | −$10 −39% |
| Will Trudy peak at Category 4?Ends in 9d | Yes | 431 | 42¢ → 4¢ | $16 | −$165 −91% |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 100 | 14¢ → 16¢ | $16 | +$2 +11% |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 500 | <1¢ → 3¢ | $16 | +$14 +675% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 400 | 1¢ → 3¢ | $11 | +$5 +89% |
| Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 695 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $8 | +$6 +283% |
| Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 491 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $7 | +$5 +256% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 78d | Yes | 100 | 14¢ → 7¢ | $7 | −$8 −54% |
| Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 326 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $6 | −$2 −23% |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 120 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $4 | +$1 +18% |
| Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 178 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $3 | +$2 +238% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3 | 16¢ → 71¢ | $2 | +$2 +353% |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 50 | 14¢ → 4¢ | $2 | −$5 −73% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 1 | 13¢ → 54¢ | $1 | +$0 +312% |
| Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 3 | 3¢ → 4¢ | $0 | +$0 +48% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 86 | 30¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$26 −100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 200 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 741 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,771 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$138 −100% |
| Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 200 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,502 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,020 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$94 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 296 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 20 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 132 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$46 −100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,012 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$135 −100% |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 400 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$110 −100% |
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Team Spirit | 112 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$38 −100% |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,000 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 521 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$80 −100% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on August 29, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 523 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,130 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 110 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,196 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,067 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,059 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$92 −100% |
| Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 418 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 696 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 994 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 600 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 400 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$93 −100% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 973 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$51 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 994 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$104 −100% |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 700 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$29 −100% |
| US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,044 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 533 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$68 −100% |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 968 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$62 −100% |
| Trump renames AI by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,488 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$194 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 400 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$57 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 610 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$81 −100% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 418 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$51 −100% |
| Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Team Spirit | 300 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$46 −100% |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 500 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$111 −100% |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 187 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 47 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
