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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 1% | — | −4 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 15d |
| Chopsticks catch Starship? | 45% | — | +17 pts | 44¢ · 45¢ (1¢) | — | in 257d |
| Successful splash down? | 32% | +6 pts | −31 pts | 15¢ · 48¢ (33¢) | — | in 257d |
| November 30, 2026 | 78% | — | −10 pts | 77¢ · 78¢ (1¢) | $105 | in 45d |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 61% | +26 pts | +25 pts | 46¢ · 75¢ (29¢) | $100 | in 257d |
| November 15, 2026 | 28% | −14 pts | −13 pts | 22¢ · 34¢ (12¢) | $100 | in 30d |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 52% | −4 pts | +4 pts | 51¢ · 52¢ (1¢) | $30 | in 257d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d | 1walrus | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,989 | +$109 +5.5% | 20 |
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unpaidinternyes405 sharesThis is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 1¢ for October 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 1%.