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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +61 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −13 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −23 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −61 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −5 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 122d | Adorable-Initial | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,969 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 122d |  Henryxlsurf | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,372 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 122d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,912 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 122d | 0xredpanda | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,344 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 122d | Poiuztrewq | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,348 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 122d | Prudent-Muffin | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,503 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 122d | niceShare | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,161 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 122d | BinaryBaron | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,020 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d |  Annica4 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $36,861 | +$454 +1.2% | 20 |
| 122d |  PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d | Annica2 fills | 200-219 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $17,689 | −$608 −3.4% | — |
| 122d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,004 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d |  LinaBell🦊 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,006 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 122d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,316 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 122d | WCWS4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$100 +1.0% | 20 |
| 122d | onekey022 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,563 | +$32 +0.7% | 20 |
| 122d | Robin897654 | 200-219 | SellYes100¢ | $1,073 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 122d | j5673 | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,786 | +$14 +0.8% | 20 |
| 122d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 122d | Traingman | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 122d | ShaunLee | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,420 | +$20 +0.8% | 20 |
| 122d |  Gustav4 | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,723 | +$43 +0.9% | 20 |
| 123d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,899 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 123d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,016 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | nole-ksum | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | −$16 −1.5% | — |
| 123d | carboyant | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,760 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | htg46 | 200-219 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | −$40 −2.0% | — |
| 123d | Muzamilhussain | 200-219 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,425 | −$75 −3.1% | — |
| 123d | Jackybrown | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,624 | −$27 −1.0% | — |
| 123d | EMbrace | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 123d | karen2p | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,808 | +$64 +1.7% | 21 |
| 123d | startrader3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $6,058 | +$1,099 +18% | 25 |
| 123d |  jesterthegoose | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,448 | +$48 +3.3% | 21 |
| 123d | Jackybrown | 200-219 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,291 | +$109 +8.5% | 23 |
| 123d | EMbrace | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$102 +7.7% | 22 |
| 123d | Adorable-Initial | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,900 | +$44 +0.7% | 20 |
| 123d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,914 | +$86 +1.2% | 20 |
| 123d | YuzuLemon | 200-219 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | +$128 +9.3% | 23 |
| 123d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,436 | +$174 +3.2% | 21 |
| 123d | jesterthegoose | 180-199 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,956 | +$240 +12% | 24 |
| 123d | sazzaa | 200-219 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,640 | −$880 −33% | — |
| 123d | WCWS | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | ylnopU | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | −$22 −1.9% | — |
| 123d |  upont | 180-199 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$342 +27% | 27 |
| 123d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo100¢ | $1,900 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 123d |  axelverse.sol | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,480 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | BayesianBet888 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,392 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 123d | yolol3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,723 | +$105 +0.5% | 20 |
| 123d | upont3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,588 | +$55 +0.2% | 20 |
| 123d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,890 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 123d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,892 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 123d | BullishBet | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,782 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 123d | MarginMaster | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 123d | Ag500k3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,296 | +$87 +1.6% | 20 |
| 123d | Ag500k | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,110 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 123d | Joethebirria125 | 180-199 | BuyNo55¢ → 100¢ | $2,567 | +$2,101 +82% | 28 |
| 123d | Joethebirria125 | 180-199 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $2,236 | +$2,236 +100% | — |
| 123d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,333 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 123d | Joethebirria125 | 180-199 | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $3,930 | −$3,930 −100% | 28 |
| 123d | upont | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,077 | +$65 +2.1% | 21 |
Fadal621,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.