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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 100% | +1 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| December 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% | +3 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% | −5 pts | −22 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| September 30, 2026 | 100% | 0 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31, 2026 | 100% | +2 pts | +58 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31, 2026 | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30, 2026 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31, 2026 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15, 2026 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 19, 2026 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58d |  Rex416 | August 31, 2026 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 58d | Vv7777777 | August 31, 2026 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,029 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 58d |  OraculumNobius3 fills | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,610 | +$24 +0.7% | 4 |
| 58d |  tsybka5 fills | September 30, 2026 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $20,383 | −$1,547 −7.6% | — |
| 58d | SlenderMan2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,312 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 58d | SlenderMan | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,295 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 58d | SlenderMan | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,528 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 58d | tsybka3 fills | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $19,374 | +$1,158 +6.0% | 4 |
| 58d | tsybka6 fills | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $47,240 | +$3,911 +8.3% | 4 |
| 59d |  Lord-Of-Democracy | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$14 +1.3% | 4 |
| 59d |  Bromley86 | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$24 +2.1% | 4 |
| 59d | yougotme3 fills | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,259 | +$138 +1.7% | 4 |
| 59d | yougotme4 fills | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $22,573 | +$410 +1.8% | 4 |
| 59d | sdhyky | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,517 | +$23 +1.5% | 4 |
| 59d | tsybka6 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $83,169 | −$8,469 −10% | — |
| 59d | mr.NobodyNowhere | September 30, 2026 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,063 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 59d |  ProxyOne2 fills | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,469 | +$36 +1.4% | 4 |
| 59d |  NiceDuckBro | September 30, 2026 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,389 | −$11 −0.4% | — |
| 59d | ProxyOne2 fills | August 31, 2026 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,028 | −$27 −0.7% | — |
| 59d | OraculumNobius | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 59d | Donkolo2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,048 | +$16 +0.5% | 4 |
| 59d | notgoodluck2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes100¢ | $5,932 | +$30 +0.5% | 4 |
| 59d | notgoodluck | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,824 | +$26 +0.7% | 4 |
| 59d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed11 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $16,714 | −$945 −5.7% | — |
| 59d | NiceDuckBro | December 31, 2026 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,463 | −$37 −0.8% | — |
| 59d | aff34 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $139,372 | +$2,403 +1.7% | 4 |
| 59d | fractal.cucumber | September 30, 2026 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,197 | −$66 −3.0% | — |
| 59d |  SubashChandraBose2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,870 | +$130 +1.3% | 4 |
| 59d | MonacoLover | December 31, 2026 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | −$96 −8.5% | — |
| 59d | iuH1398SI | December 31, 2026 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$63 −5.9% | — |
| 59d | tsybka10 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $184,555 | +$20,782 +11% | 4 |
| 59d | bolla-577 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,171 | +$310 +14% | 4 |
| 59d | NiceDuckBro | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $8,808 | +$1,259 +14% | 4 |
| 59d | iuH1398SI | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$299 +15% | 4 |
| 59d | tightpincer | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,313 | +$84 +6.4% | 4 |
| 59d | MusakaKing | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$1,052 +42% | 4 |
| 59d |  BunnyClick | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $9,746 | +$3,436 +35% | 4 |
| 59d | BunnyClick | August 31, 2026 | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $4,094 | +$5,235 +128% | 6 |
| 59d | MusakaKing | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$400 +16% | 4 |
| 60d | TerreMoto | December 31, 2026 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,719 | −$605 −16% | — |
| 61d | elPolloLoco2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $8,800 | +$1,137 +13% | 4 |
| 62d |  yen4u | August 15, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,965 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 63d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | August 15, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,058 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 63d | SuperFake | August 15, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$27 +1.3% | 4 |
| 64d | dedpepe | December 31, 2026 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $5,186 | −$814 −16% | — |
| 66d | hopedieslast | December 31, 2026 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,484 | −$516 −9.4% | — |
| 70d | Rox44 | August 15, 2026 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | +$150 +15% | 4 |
| 74d | aff3 | September 30, 2026 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,610 | −$328 −20% | — |
| 75d |  mewmew1 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,025 | −$164 −8.1% | — |
| 75d | mewmew1 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,053 | +$136 +6.6% | 4 |
| 75d |  siick | December 31, 2026 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,775 | −$225 −8.1% | — |
| 76d | selador | December 31, 2026 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,625 | −$375 −8.1% | — |
| 76d | yen4u3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo12¢ → 0¢ | $7,717 | −$7,717 −100% | 19 |
| 77d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed6 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $12,540 | +$754 +6.0% | 4 |
| 77d |  noreasapa | July 31, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,213 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 77d |  ImJustKen | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo7¢ → 0¢ | $3,417 | −$3,417 −100% | 13 |
| 77d |  Everestpredictions | December 31, 2026 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | −$101 −7.5% | — |
| 78d | aff3 | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,135 | +$374 +12% | 4 |
| 78d | selador3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,123 | +$377 +7.4% | 4 |
| 79d | neo7777 | July 31, 2026 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | −$56 −5.2% | — |
Loxer109 sharesImJustKen39,475 sharesyen4u27,438 sharesThis is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 100%.