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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +74 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −58 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81d | 0x7111…7c21 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 82d | windyww | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,043 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 82d | Fine-Column | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,317 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 82d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,246 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 82d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,350 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 82d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,268 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 82d | tenorplum | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,699 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 82d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,676 | +$22 +0.6% | 20 |
| 82d |  Gustav4 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 82d | sazzaa | 40-64 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | −$110 −11% | — |
| 82d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$34 +3.1% | 21 |
| 82d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$92 +6.8% | 22 |
| 82d | Fine-Column | 65-89 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$320 +16% | 25 |
| 82d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,916 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 82d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | +$322 +25% | 27 |
| 82d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,994 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 82d | anon.1980.123 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,414 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 82d |  Corlys2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,418 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 82d | Corlys | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,219 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 82d | 0xaea825a7eaafa49b59b61af8f376923dc1e4ff | 40-64 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$298 +25% | 25 |
| 82d | 0x1d94…80da | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,693 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 82d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,136 | +$173 +5.5% | 21 |
| 82d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,764 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 82d | nbjui12 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,360 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 82d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,395 | +$100 +4.2% | 21 |
| 83d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,256 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 83d |  Feracios | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,122 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 83d | Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,181 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 83d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,931 | +$67 +2.3% | 20 |
| 83d |  PENIsO | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,021 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 83d | Profitable-Violation | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,283 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 83d | dafei888 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 83d | onekey02 | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,913 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 83d | pingfan666 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,452 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 83d | anon.1980.123 | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,394 | +$21 +1.5% | 20 |
| 83d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 84d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$22 +1.5% | 20 |
| 85d | Irondo | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,696 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 25 12:00 PM ET to July 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.
