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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +92 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −54 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −73 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d |  Espagan | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,446 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d |  upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,940 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | ym-mzt1 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,597 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | zhenni | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,195 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 3d | carboyant2 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,092 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 3d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,760 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 3d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 3d | livepo1y | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | +$15 +1.2% | 20 |
| 3d | d008 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$55 +1.4% | 20 |
| 3d | upont | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$37 +3.5% | 21 |
| 3d |  Feracios | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,474 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,595 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | YuzuLemon | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,184 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,510 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | YuzuLemon | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 3d | Espagan | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$43 +3.6% | 21 |
| 3d | ElonSimp5 fills | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,783 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | carboyant | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,394 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d |  AndreaPirlo | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,488 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 3d | 0xf14e…6173 | 40-64 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | −$65 −5.8% | — |
| 3d | ElonSimp | 40-64 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,214 | +$166 +14% | 23 |
| 3d | upont2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,595 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 3d | onekey02 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,126 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | Laoxiong | 40-64 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | −$140 −10% | — |
| 4d | CakeBake | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,306 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | CakeBake | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,412 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
AmiteshGupta1,500 shares
Mr.Frog🐸577 shares
JackSparrowSentMe218 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 12 12:00 PM ET to October 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.