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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +46 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −15 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −53 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −11 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126d | OnlySafeBets | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,074 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Poiuztrewq | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,503 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Degenerate-Dude | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,241 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  KARMASUR | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $21,044 | −$21 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Papuasus | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,558 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Po1yBot-31gZTTt2kH | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,454 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Healthy-Sightseeing2 fills | 220-239 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $3,056 | −$1,452 −48% | — |
| 126d |  Annica | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,374 | +$51 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,341 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $37,460 | +$2,070 +5.5% | 21 |
| 126d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,879 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Annica2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,399 | +$144 +1.4% | 20 |
| 126d |  thx4playing | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  Green.Gold3 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $31,598 | +$152 +0.5% | 20 |
| 126d |  520111 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Degenerate-Dude | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,508 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 126d | Degenerate-Dude | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,717 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,209 | +$63 +1.2% | 20 |
| 126d | win-win-win99 | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$32 +1.6% | 21 |
| 126d | NabFire11 | 220-239 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | −$147 −11% | — |
| 126d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 220-239 | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,549 | −$1,537 −99% | — |
| 126d |  LeipzigG | 220-239 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | −$259 −25% | — |
| 126d | Annica | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,798 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Ag500k | 220-239 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | +$165 +11% | 23 |
| 126d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,810 | +$533 +7.8% | 21 |
| 126d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,376 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | PredictionYogi | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,629 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d |  vamnizar | 220-239 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$257 +25% | 27 |
| 126d | htg46 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,162 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 127d |  upont6 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,219 | +$84 +0.3% | 20 |
| 127d | dddtrips | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | Muzamilhussain | 220-239 | SellYes55¢ → 100¢ | $2,347 | −$1,942 −83% | — |
| 127d | havetodoc | 220-239 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | −$275 −24% | — |
| 127d | PredictionYogi | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,715 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | cat9527 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,417 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | catcatcat0022 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | PredictionYogi | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,715 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | Healthy-Sightseeing2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $3,292 | +$1,436 +44% | 28 |
| 127d |  jesterthegoose4 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $38,792 | +$2,540 +6.5% | 22 |
| 127d | Annica | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,244 | +$462 +6.4% | 22 |
| 127d | jesterthegoose | 220-239 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$182 +16% | 25 |
| 127d | Annica | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,739 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | BinaryBaron | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $16,630 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | Rickz88 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | WCWS | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,481 | +$19 +1.3% | 20 |
| 127d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,927 | +$70 +1.4% | 20 |
| 127d | carboyant | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,732 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | ShaunLee | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 127d |  y111m11 | 240-259 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,281 | +$44 +3.4% | 21 |
| 127d | Dymaknight | 220-239 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$518 +40% | 28 |
| 127d | ProsperIntelligence | 240-259 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,375 | −$180 −7.6% | — |
| 127d | carboyant2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,277 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d |  gelo39 | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$174 +8.7% | 22 |
| 127d | GoldenSpin | 200-219 | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | −$495 −39% | — |
| 127d | startrader | 220-239 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | +$486 +32% | 26 |
| 127d | WCWS4 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,285 | +$130 +1.6% | 20 |
| 127d | abinfafafa | 220-239 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$665 +44% | 28 |
| 127d | loveheng | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,724 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | suyizi | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,851 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
MineYours1,723 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 5 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.