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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 205d | 4ever01 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,230 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | benben2026 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Gustav4 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,564 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,712 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  NrNrfNrf2 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,290 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 206d | sazzaa | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,040 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Annica2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,705 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | Ommamal | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,190 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | knfnthx | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,494 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 206d | ghdyrdd | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,231 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 206d | ANITA2026 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,888 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 206d | amwfhv | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,075 | +$25 +0.8% | 20 |
| 206d | ghdyrdd2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,800 | +$218 +5.7% | 22 |
| 206d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,313 | +$565 +17% | 24 |
| 206d | influenz.eth | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,961 | +$39 +1.3% | 20 |
| 206d | forestk | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,078 | +$86 +1.2% | 20 |
| 206d | hyp8882 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,965 | +$60 +2.0% | 21 |
| 206d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,725 | +$49 +1.8% | 21 |
| 206d | NrNrfNrf2 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,223 | +$73 +2.2% | 21 |
| 206d | NrNrfNrf2 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,223 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | 0xcf0d…1081 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | samponcuochi | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,013 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Hideous-LookoutNew account | 40-64 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,486 | −$163 −11% | — |
| 206d |  upont | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,597 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | 152452525252 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Oval-Convection | 40-64 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$198 +19% | 25 |
| 206d |  Deepwinner888 | 40-64 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$352 +28% | 27 |
| 206d |  Boss73 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,863 | +$80 +0.7% | 20 |
| 206d | Favorable-Suspenders2 fills | 65-89 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $2,330 | −$634 −27% | — |
| 206d | 152452525252 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 206d | BinaryBaron5 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $16,651 | +$276 +1.7% | 20 |
| 206d | Bankrupt-Loser | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,938 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 206d | mitikohalls3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,822 | +$128 +1.2% | 20 |
| 206d | mitikohalls | 65-89 | SellNo54¢ → 100¢ | $1,420 | −$1,194 −84% | — |
| 206d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | −$375 −33% | — |
| 206d | mitikohalls | 65-89 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,908 | +$707 +37% | 29 |
| 206d | upont | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,382 | +$64 +1.0% | 20 |
| 206d | Unsightly-Pinkie2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 35 |
| 206d | jiaha | 40-64 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,667 | −$1,198 −45% | — |
| 206d | Hideous-LookoutNew account | 40-64 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$479 +41% | 36 |
| 206d | Collion | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,073 | +$104 +2.0% | 21 |
| 206d | Boss7 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,529 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | 0xae86 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,811 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Antaaa79 | 90-114 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | −$52 −4.4% | — |
| 206d | BingBowen | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,014 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | bliksi | 40-64 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,939 | +$936 +48% | 28 |
| 206d | NrNrfNrf22 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,155 | +$71 +2.3% | 21 |
| 206d |  DJB. | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,403 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d |  LeJoe | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,673 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | Antaaa79 | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$44 +3.7% | 21 |
| 206d | beatyesterday | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,231 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  0xPoni-Elon | 90-114 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | −$55 −4.0% | — |
| 206d | PredictionYogi | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,036 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | Gustav4 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,961 | +$39 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | ghdyrdd | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,023 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 206d |  KARMASUR | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,824 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 206d | Separate-Beast | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 206d | makemecomplete | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,007 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | mirrorreff | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,005 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | conme | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,005 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
tupac81,274 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 23 12:00 PM ET to March 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.