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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200d | WCWS | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | Ommamal | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,545 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | carboyant | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,828 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | Favorable-Suspenders | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | FieryPhoenix | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,054 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | Wakasama09 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,322 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | ankandrop | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | 111asdddsa | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,738 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | benben2026 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,013 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | Bustling-Repository | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 201d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,620 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | 2509327 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 201d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,766 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 201d | 0xc41f…2a812 fills | 40-64 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,989 | −$794 −16% | — |
| 201d |  Annica | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,264 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 201d | 0x5b63…30d5 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,911 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 201d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,530 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 201d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,762 | +$39 +0.6% | 20 |
| 201d | Annica4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $24,599 | +$171 +0.7% | 20 |
| 201d | hyp888 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,343 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 201d |  Gustav4 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,058 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,134 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 201d | influenz.eth4 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $7,635 | +$1,041 +14% | 24 |
| 201d |  Deepwinner888 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,690 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 201d |  upont3 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $27,328 | −$37 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | iipera | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 201d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,290 | +$25 +0.7% | 20 |
| 201d | may501 | 65-89 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,794 | −$99 −5.5% | — |
| 201d |  jesterthegoose | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,758 | +$38 +2.1% | 21 |
| 201d | ok2606 | 40-64 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$101 +8.9% | 23 |
| 201d | Green-Saint | 40-64 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,318 | −$208 −16% | — |
| 201d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,290 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | iipera | 40-64 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,255 | −$479 −21% | — |
| 201d | upont | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$46 +4.2% | 21 |
| 201d |  sundogs | 65-89 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,337 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 201d |  5201112 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,485 | +$40 +1.1% | 20 |
| 201d | 520111 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 201d | knfnthx | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,105 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | DXDYZ2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $7,387 | +$565 +7.6% | 22 |
| 201d | ANITA2026 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 201d | amwfhv | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,868 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 201d |  Boss72 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,978 | +$118 +1.0% | 20 |
| 201d | 111asdddsa | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,716 | +$25 +0.9% | 20 |
| 201d | Trencher1234 | 40-64 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,898 | −$88 −3.0% | — |
| 201d | Green-Saint | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$26 +1.8% | 21 |
| 201d |  dushen88 | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,823 | +$62 +3.4% | 21 |
| 201d | Boss7 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | forestk | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,164 | +$459 +6.4% | 22 |
| 201d |  all.in0828 | 40-64 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,343 | −$409 −17% | — |
| 201d | Wakasama09 | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$224 +7.5% | 22 |
| 201d | amwfhv | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | +$80 +7.5% | 22 |
| 201d | influenz.eth5 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,706 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | all.in0828 | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,479 | +$273 +11% | 23 |
| 201d | Oval-Convection2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,469 | +$287 +12% | 23 |
| 201d | knfnthx | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,961 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | Collion | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,801 | −$17 −0.3% | — |
| 201d | 0xc41f…2a81 | 40-64 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$218 +16% | 24 |
| 201d | upont3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,311 | +$53 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | Boss73 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,938 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | 0x5b63…30d5 | 40-64 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | +$603 +30% | 28 |
Richgoddess24,033 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.