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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | — | — | 83¢ · >99¢ (17¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 198d |  AlmostRich | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,935 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 198d | 1111515645 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,522 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 198d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,234 | −$91 −0.7% | — |
| 198d | Emethod | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,567 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 198d | Separate-Beast | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  TweetPulse.Live | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,262 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | Pungent-Almanac | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,094 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | bananirko | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,908 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  Deepwinner888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,154 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  Annica4 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $96,018 | +$282 +0.3% | 20 |
| 199d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,850 | +$51 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | Bustling-Repository | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,380 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | TweetPulse.Live | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,259 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | Worldly-Fifth | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,371 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 199d | percyy-152 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,176 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | onekey09 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,973 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | Annica4 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $9,171 | +$1,419 +15% | 24 |
| 199d | Rickz88 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$12 +1.2% | 20 |
| 199d |  HeveanlyEmma | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,299 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  NEMESi | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  lasiweijiasi | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,954 | +$30 +1.0% | 20 |
| 199d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,565 | +$29 +0.8% | 20 |
| 199d | AlmostRich | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,924 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 199d | Rs3Nurburgring | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,442 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | 7thskyboomboom | 90-114 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$228 −21% | — |
| 199d | longgang123 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,429 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 199d | 0x0526 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,517 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | Separate-Beast | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | Simmelariii | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | WCWS3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,224 | +$36 +0.6% | 20 |
| 199d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,827 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 199d | Emethod | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,193 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,509 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,978 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | RickRockRick | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,995 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | Bankrupt-Loser | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,973 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 199d |  upont2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,275 | +$24 +0.3% | 20 |
| 199d | Rickz882 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,866 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 |
| 199d | AlmostRich | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,843 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | pupupuup | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,141 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | forestk | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,624 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d |  tupac8 | 90-114 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | −$301 −22% | — |
| 199d | Separate-Beast | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,991 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  Gustav4 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,906 | +$85 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | startrader | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,828 | +$156 +5.5% | 22 |
| 199d | startrader | 65-89 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $4,148 | +$774 +19% | 25 |
| 199d |  Meow12 | 90-114 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$749 +70% | 30 |
| 199d | AlmostRich | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,727 | +$111 +6.4% | 22 |
| 199d | pupupuup | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | +$149 +7.5% | 22 |
| 199d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,321 | −$1,321 −100% | 30 |
| 199d | jianghua3504 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  dushen88 | 65-89 | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $1,886 | +$1,886 +100% | — |
| 199d |  LinaBell🦊 | 90-114 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,426 | +$407 +29% | 27 |
| 199d | upont3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,960 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | dudukos | 65-89 | SellYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,313 | +$2,313 +100% | — |
| 199d |  4DoorsMoreHorse | 90-114 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,180 | −$1,180 −100% | 29 |
| 199d | Dicccccc2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $8,864 | +$2,083 +23% | 26 |
| 199d | Dicccccc | 90-114 | SellYes16¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | −$7,656 −542% | — |
| 199d | Dicccccc4 fills | 65-89 | SellYes39¢ → 0¢ | $10,343 | +$10,343 +100% | — |
| 199d | Dicccccc2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo53¢ → 0¢ | $4,960 | +$4,960 +100% | — |
ElonJail1,017 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.