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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +29 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −68 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 153d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,251 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 153d |  turista.analog | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,352 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 153d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,107 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | SLG007 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,419 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | 66666666666666666666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,448 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  mzz-gtma | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,969 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,631 | +$27 +0.2% | 20 |
| 154d | qianwaiqian007 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,109 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,436 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 154d |  Boss73 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,657 | +$75 +0.3% | 20 |
| 154d | Boss72 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,991 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 154d | morchory | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $4,486 | +$23 +0.5% | 20 |
| 154d |  520111 | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 154d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $5,119 | +$26 +0.5% | 20 |
| 154d | carboyant | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,120 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  FraterTetractous | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,779 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 154d | Intelligent-Tax7 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,075 | +$223 +1.1% | 20 |
| 154d | 0xbea8…36ef | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,744 | +$39 +0.7% | 20 |
| 154d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,289 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,340 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 154d | rusgreat | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,910 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 154d | Ag500k2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,710 | +$61 +1.1% | 20 |
| 154d | Ag500k | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,164 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  yes99 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$17 +1.5% | 21 |
| 154d | ylnopU | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$23 +1.5% | 21 |
| 154d | PredictionYogi | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,664 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$20 +1.8% | 21 |
| 154d | dogsupper | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,005 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | anon.1980.1233 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,324 | +$251 +3.0% | 21 |
| 154d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | −$30 −2.0% | — |
| 154d | Nightshaded | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,419 | +$44 +0.3% | 20 |
| 154d | pramujahl | 65-89 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | −$38 −3.4% | — |
| 154d | PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,902 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 154d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$112 +2.2% | 21 |
| 154d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,836 | +$54 +0.5% | 20 |
| 154d | Immaterial-Framework | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,480 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $13,310 | +$569 +4.3% | 21 |
| 154d | temniy-drun | 40-64 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,670 | −$52 −3.1% | — |
| 154d | temniy-drun | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$22 +1.3% | 20 |
| 154d | lankeleads2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,098 | +$51 +1.7% | 20 |
| 154d | Po1yBot-Jgb24zFpNP | 65-89 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$84 +6.1% | 22 |
| 154d | hansenyang | 40-64 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | −$26 −2.0% | — |
| 154d |  upont | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,517 | +$52 +1.1% | 20 |
| 154d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$199 +5.0% | 21 |
| 154d | WCWS | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | +$39 +3.1% | 21 |
| 154d | startrader | 40-64 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | +$287 +21% | 25 |
| 154d | SLG007 | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$62 +4.6% | 21 |
| 154d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $68,532 | +$69 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | Boss7 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,275 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 154d | ppobb1123 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,186 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | xxtgsy | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 154d | xxtgsy | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  PM6662 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,630 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | Muzamilhussain | 65-89 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$646 +45% | 28 |
| 154d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,546 | +$46 +0.6% | 20 |
| 154d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,533 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  C78123 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft3,534 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.