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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141d | mobiledanger15 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,300 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | 2258 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,613 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | qwwqe6 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,513 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 142d | qwe258 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,530 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | okx.btc | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,800 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | 0xbea8…36ef2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,341 | −$18 −0.5% | — |
| 143d | ellio8989 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Muzamilhussain | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,037 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | nemalo | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,005 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Unconscious-Alloy | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,434 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | OnlySafeBets | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,530 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 143d |  upont | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Ag500k | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,931 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | 0x02Cb3470A405A6076469f385198763 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,564 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 143d |  Mei-ji | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,496 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Poiuztrewq | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,197 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | upont2 fills | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $18,832 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | dodca | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,699 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 143d |  TweetPulse.Live | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,159 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | liemingshichuangqi | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Solitude26 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,188 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Ruddy-Beret | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,455 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Descuy | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 143d |  KARMASUR | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,714 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 143d | Robin897654 | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 144d | lankeleads | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 144d |  jesterthegoose6 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $54,987 | +$406 +0.7% | 20 |
| 144d | liq22 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,482 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 144d | Poory | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 144d |  PredictionYogi | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,538 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 144d |  Panopticon007 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,489 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 144d | Nimble-Outhouse | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,981 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 144d | jesterthegoose | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $16,692 | +$169 +1.0% | 20 |
| 144d | YuzuLemon | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,296 | −$37 −1.1% | — |
| 144d | upont4 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,166 | +$88 +0.5% | 20 |
| 144d | upont | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,403 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | KKTTFENG | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,400 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 144d | Jackybrown2 fills | 260-279 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,906 | −$653 −17% | — |
| 144d | win-win-win99 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,800 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 144d |  Boss7 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 144d | Airdraken | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 144d |  LOL525 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,867 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 144d | sunqibin | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 144d | Separate-Beast | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 144d |  AlmostRich | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,600 | +$164 +2.5% | 21 |
| 144d | Jackybrown2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,138 | +$962 +31% | 28 |
| 144d | YuzuLemon | 240-259 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,736 | +$597 +22% | 26 |
| 144d | SmolDog3 fills | 240-259 | SellYes72¢ → 0¢ | $5,744 | +$5,744 +100% | — |
| 144d | 1111 | 240-259 | BuyYes83¢ → 0¢ | $1,227 | −$1,227 −100% | 26 |
| 144d | namames | 240-259 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $1,482 | −$1,482 −100% | 28 |
| 144d | logesh32 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,009 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | Nimble-Outhouse | 260-279 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,200 | +$677 +16% | 25 |
| 144d | EMbrace | 240-259 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,888 | +$475 +25% | 27 |
| 144d |  y111m11 | 240-259 | BuyYes77¢ → 0¢ | $2,207 | −$2,207 −100% | 28 |
| 144d |  Annica | 240-259 | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $1,218 | −$1,218 −100% | 30 |
| 144d | fsdfsdf21 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,502 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | Annica | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,969 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 144d | fsdfsdf21 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,502 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 144d | Boss72 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,558 | +$33 +0.3% | 20 |
| 144d | nole-ksum | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,630 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
KinqDiamond1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.