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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +80 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −63 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140d | wanshuderen | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | Pure-Eyeliner | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,244 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | yip88 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,070 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | kaizengm | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | Rashed24 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,842 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 140d |  upont | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,650 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 141d |  Nikzzy | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,953 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $29,559 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | SLGBTC100W | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | beatyesterday | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 141d |  PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,163 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d |  Annica8 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $42,220 | +$1,454 +3.4% | 21 |
| 141d | WCWS | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,772 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d | win-win-win99 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 141d | Bankrupt-Loser2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,210 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 141d | upont6 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,167 | +$118 +0.8% | 20 |
| 141d | upont8 fills | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $36,439 | −$36 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | wanshuderen | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,392 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 141d | upont5 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,476 | +$227 +2.0% | 21 |
| 141d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$24 +2.1% | 21 |
| 141d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | +$19 +1.7% | 21 |
| 141d |  Dr.napol | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$71 +2.0% | 21 |
| 141d |  Green.Gold3 fills | 180-199 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,880 | −$120 −3.1% | — |
| 141d | jostkia | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,168 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | niceShare | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,669 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | Powerful-Table | 180-199 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | −$46 −3.0% | — |
| 141d | tenorplum | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$26 +2.2% | 21 |
| 141d | Annica | 180-199 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | −$38 −2.4% | — |
| 141d | PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$100 +2.0% | 21 |
| 141d |  Boss7 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,152 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | Jasonzz | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,709 | +$60 +1.6% | 21 |
| 141d |  MaxiChibrax | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,335 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 141d |  Meow12 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,904 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | YuzuLemon | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,057 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | Jackybrown | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,149 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 141d |  AlmostRich | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,869 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | Rashed24 | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$44 +2.4% | 21 |
| 141d | Nikzzy | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,800 | +$87 +1.1% | 20 |
| 141d | Annica2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,457 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d | miyugyiftu66 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,359 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d | Siziriv | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,874 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d | Siziriv | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,819 | +$58 +1.5% | 21 |
| 141d | jidong9808 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d | venezuelain | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d |  KARMASUR | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,181 | +$85 +1.2% | 20 |
| 141d | liq2 | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | +$45 +2.3% | 21 |
| 141d |  jesterthegoose | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,730 | +$78 +0.6% | 20 |
| 141d | Meow122 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,800 | +$110 +1.9% | 21 |
| 141d | karen2p | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$138 +3.5% | 21 |
| 141d | liq2 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d | AlmostRich | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,500 | +$51 +0.8% | 20 |
| 141d | Jackybrown | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$39 +3.5% | 21 |
| 141d | Nikzzy | 200-219 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,875 | −$234 −3.0% | — |
| 141d |  perps-01sqko85 | 160-179 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,535 | +$267 +7.5% | 22 |
| 141d | jesterthegoose | 180-199 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,588 | +$209 +13% | 24 |
| 141d | Why-always-me | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,950 | +$37 +1.2% | 20 |
| 141d | JustMeZ | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 141d | rusgreat | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 141d | lankeleads | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,366 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 141d | yip88 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
9ms11,500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 22 12:00 PM ET to May 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.