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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +38 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144d | anon.1980.123 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,764 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | Degenerate-Dude | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,231 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | jostkia | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,374 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | Ag500k | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,710 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 144d | namames | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,851 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 144d |  upont2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $20,076 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | Stormy-Gaiters | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | fdsfsdweeere17 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,201 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | sdfsdsdf18 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,303 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 145d |  KARMASUR | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,325 | +$39 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | fdsfsdweeere17 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,201 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | fdsfsdweeere17 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,201 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 145d |  Green.Gold3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,779 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,874 | +$27 +0.2% | 20 |
| 145d |  FraterTetractous | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,289 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | rusgreat | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,497 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | fdsfsdweeere17 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,201 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | sdfsdsdf18 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,043 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | win-win-win99 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,776 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 145d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,324 | +$401 +12% | 23 |
| 145d | 0x69cc…2e44 | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,227 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 145d | Nimble-Outhouse3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,002 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 145d | yolol2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,851 | +$119 +1.7% | 21 |
| 145d | Exemplary-TagNew account | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 145d | upont2 fills | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,914 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | 0xkandal | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 145d | Ruddy-Beret | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,106 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 145d | WCWS3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,898 | +$102 +1.7% | 21 |
| 145d | upont2 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,404 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,607 | +$34 +2.1% | 21 |
| 145d | Nimble-Outhouse | 40-64 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,235 | −$154 −6.9% | — |
| 145d | namames | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$139 +9.3% | 23 |
| 145d | Po1yBot-Jgb24zFpNP | 40-64 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | −$335 −29% | — |
| 145d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,422 | +$167 +6.9% | 22 |
| 145d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,078 | +$244 +7.9% | 22 |
| 145d |  Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | BlackSugar.2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,919 | +$267 +9.2% | 23 |
| 145d |  Nikzzy | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,864 | +$216 +7.5% | 22 |
| 145d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$234 +7.8% | 22 |
| 145d | Nikzzy2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,145 | +$370 +12% | 24 |
| 145d | Nikzzy | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,127 | −$25 −0.4% | — |
| 145d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $4,989 | +$948 +19% | 24 |
| 145d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,633 | +$336 +9.2% | 23 |
| 145d | Po1yBot-Jgb24zFpNP | 40-64 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$122 +8.8% | 23 |
| 145d | Po1yBot-E6QkEgEIAm | 40-64 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$124 +12% | 24 |
| 145d | upont2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,324 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 145d | Victornettoyeur | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,782 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 145d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 145d | carboyant2 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,645 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 145d | fghsrthrhrshrsth | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,906 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 145d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,343 | +$784 +33% | 27 |
| 145d | Nimble-Outhouse | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 145d | Paulig | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,013 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | Optimal-Overclocking | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,524 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$156 +15% | 23 |
| 145d | upont4 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,983 | +$45 +0.3% | 20 |
| 145d | Ag500k | 65-89 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | +$182 +15% | 23 |
| 145d |  Annica | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,364 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d |  C78123 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
perps-01sqko854,789 shares
dz1ft4,369 shares
nimikm3,400 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 23 12:00 PM ET to May 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.