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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +37 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −11 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −7 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −19 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133d | Poiuztrewq | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,774 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 133d |  upont2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,741 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 133d |  Henryxlsurf | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,275 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 133d |  Elonurmom | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,037 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 133d |  0000000000000000000000K | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,238 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 133d | Degenerate-Dude | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,997 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 133d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,885 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 133d | Healthy-Sightseeing | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,221 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 133d | Bankrupt-Loser2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,956 | +$91 +1.1% | 20 |
| 133d | Admirable-Trust | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,117 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 133d |  Green.Gold | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,669 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 133d |  Gustav42 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,531 | +$31 +0.9% | 20 |
| 133d | onekey02 | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,011 | +$41 +1.0% | 20 |
| 133d | livepo1y | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,805 | +$28 +1.0% | 20 |
| 133d |  Dr.napol | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,902 | +$80 +2.0% | 21 |
| 133d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,567 | +$128 +3.6% | 21 |
| 133d | logesh32 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,872 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 134d |  Mei-ji | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,089 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 134d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,039 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 134d |  LinaBell🦊 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 134d | JustMeZ | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,800 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 134d | Repulsive-Hit | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 134d | SmolDog | 200-219 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$1,743 +35% | 29 |
| 134d | bipbipbop | 200-219 | SellNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | −$507 −33% | — |
| 134d | nbjui1 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,890 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 134d | upont | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $38,301 | −$38 −0.1% | — |
| 134d | WCWS4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,366 | +$134 +2.1% | 21 |
| 134d | polybombing | 180-199 | SellYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | −$1,528 −103% | — |
| 134d | polybombing | 180-199 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,953 | +$1,057 +54% | 28 |
| 134d | livepo1y | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | +$22 +1.6% | 20 |
| 134d | PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $1,656 | +$1,015 +61% | 28 |
| 134d | Elonurmom | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,870 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 134d | liq2 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 134d |  Prexpect | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 134d | Intelligent-Tax | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,574 | +$34 +1.3% | 20 |
| 134d | Healthy-Sightseeing | 180-199 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $3,800 | +$1,435 +38% | 27 |
| 134d | nole-ksum | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,031 | −$39 −1.9% | — |
| 134d | upont3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,500 | +$31 +0.4% | 20 |
| 134d | Rickz88 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 134d | pingfan666 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,426 | +$28 +0.8% | 20 |
| 134d | suifeng668 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,270 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 134d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,572 | +$68 +1.2% | 20 |
| 134d | dafei888 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,205 | +$28 +1.3% | 20 |
| 134d | buputong | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,791 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 134d | luca88 | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | +$27 +1.8% | 20 |
| 134d |  C78123 | 160-179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$190 +6.3% | 22 |
| 134d | carboyant | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,163 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 134d | 0xredpanda | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,318 | +$27 +2.1% | 21 |
| 134d | upont4 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,239 | +$81 +0.2% | 20 |
| 134d | Elonurmom2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$546 +7.8% | 21 |
| 135d |  Tutovnik1337 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,066 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 135d | anon.1980.123 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,925 | +$43 +1.1% | 20 |
| 135d | OnlySafeBets | 200-219 | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $3,026 | −$1,422 −47% | — |
| 135d | Bigggggggg | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,224 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 135d | Bigggggggg | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | +$19 +1.6% | 20 |
| 135d | Bigggggggg | 160-179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$69 +6.0% | 21 |
| 135d | Bigggggggg | 220-239 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$97 +8.6% | 21 |
| 135d | havetodoc | 180-199 | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | +$1,276 +115% | 25 |
| 135d | Bigggggggg | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,226 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 135d |  MyLilKamala | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 29 12:00 PM ET to June 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.
