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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230+ | 100% | +10 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <80 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80–94 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 95–109 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 110–124 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125–139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140–154 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 155–169 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 170–184 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 185–199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–214 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215–229 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 499d |  catasus2 fills | 230+ | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $5,694 | −$3,014 −53% | — |
| 499d | MyNameIsDarkKnight4 fills | 230+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,775 | +$66 +0.4% | 20 |
| 499d | glarity | 230+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,944 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 499d | astromage | 230+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,276 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 499d | leiger2 fills | 230+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,910 | +$85 +0.9% | 20 |
| 499d | WXYXPo | 230+ | SellYes>99¢ | $4,029 | −$11 −0.3% | — |
| 499d | cipherpilot | 230+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,819 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 499d | SPECADER | 200–214 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,703 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 499d | DjKeingeld | 200–214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,484 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 499d | forestk | 230+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | −$27 −1.9% | — |
| 499d |  Prexpect5 fills | 230+ | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $16,529 | +$2,625 +16% | 21 |
| 499d | Snoorrason | 230+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | +$40 +3.1% | 21 |
| 499d | noovd | 230+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,090 | +$110 +5.3% | 21 |
| 499d | kaspa22 | 230+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,102 | +$122 +5.8% | 21 |
| 499d | forestk2 fills | 230+ | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,481 | +$862 +35% | 24 |
| 499d | Snoorrason5 fills | 200–214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,856 | +$42 +0.5% | 20 |
| 499d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 230+ | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $8,465 | +$1,510 +18% | 23 |
| 499d | glarity2 fills | 185–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,351 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 499d | Snoorrason | 185–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,596 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 500d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 230+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $5,665 | −$791 −14% | — |
| 500d | Prexpect3 fills | 230+ | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $12,521 | −$1,469 −12% | — |
| 500d |  cbo34 | 230+ | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,345 | −$101 −7.5% | — |
| 500d |  funnyday | 200–214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,741 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 500d | glarity | 200–214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,227 | +$23 +0.7% | 20 |
| 500d | leiger | 185–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,768 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 500d | Prexpect | 200–214 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,557 | −$54 −3.5% | — |
| 500d |  CannaDough | 230+ | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $6,203 | −$521 −8.4% | — |
| 500d | astromage | 200–214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,252 | +$26 +0.8% | 20 |
| 500d |  Gustav4 | 230+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,591 | +$102 +6.4% | 21 |
| 500d | 0xeccdededcc | 230+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | −$189 −14% | — |
| 500d | 1mperator17 | 230+ | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,954 | −$466 −12% | — |
| 500d | septemberego | 230+ | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | −$113 −9.9% | — |
| 500d | nndmg | 200–214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,244 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 500d | F01501 | 230+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$199 +5.5% | 21 |
| 500d | mr.bean | 230+ | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | −$155 −11% | — |
| 500d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 230+ | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,678 | +$561 +9.9% | 21 |
| 500d | TinyKate | 230+ | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | +$112 +10% | 22 |
| 500d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | 185–199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | +$12 +0.9% | 20 |
| 500d | CannaDough | 230+ | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,534 | +$795 +14% | 22 |
| 500d | Junkuk | 170–184 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,118 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 500d | Freepumba | 155–169 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,086 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 500d | Joelogan | 170–184 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,095 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 500d | LukasDen | 170–184 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,092 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 500d | Punker2s | 170–184 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,087 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 500d |  imp | 185–199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$18 +1.5% | 20 |
| 500d | WXYXPo | 230+ | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | +$350 +28% | 24 |
| 500d | astromage | 140–154 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,834 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 500d | leiger | 140–154 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,537 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 501d | PredictionYogi | 185–199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,448 | +$539 +9.9% | 22 |
| 501d | cipherpilot | 155–169 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,513 | +$140 +1.2% | 20 |
| 501d | glarity | 155–169 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 501d | Funat | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,066 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 501d | Pakedu | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 501d | Shiball | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,079 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 501d | Carrys22 | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,088 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 501d | Luakpai | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,034 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 501d | Jinxp | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,151 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 501d | Jamechar | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,169 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 501d | Samchj | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,224 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 501d | Trumppper | 140–154 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,231 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
MysticMuffin650 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between May 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and June 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 230+ means the market gives it about 100%.