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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-119 | 100% | +47 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −41 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −6 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 157d | MichelleZangwill | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,210 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 157d |  FraterTetractous | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,196 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 157d | Actual-Ladle | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 157d | ZIKORUZ1 | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,388 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 157d | niceShare | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,103 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 157d |  Elonurmom | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,122 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 157d |  hidden-james | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,002 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 157d | What-Exchange-Builder-04 | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 157d | Degenerate-Dude | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,985 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | Dense-Muscat | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,210 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | 0x21d3…8d3f | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,487 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | jidong9808 | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,394 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | Separate-Beast | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | onekey02 | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,622 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | MelH | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,422 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,700 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d |  Prexpect2 fills | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | niuniuhgir | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,149 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d |  Annica | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d |  y111m11 | 100-119 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 158d | BinaryBaron | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,240 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | WCWS | 100-119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 158d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 120-139 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,795 | −$42 −2.3% | — |
| 158d |  HowToBasic | 100-119 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 158d |  520111 | 100-119 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 158d | shiratoki | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,207 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | FraterTetractous | 100-119 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,615 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 158d | tenorplum | 120-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$22 +2.1% | 21 |
| 158d | Cheerful-Soil | 120-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$54 +3.2% | 21 |
| 158d | yolol2 fills | 100-119 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,336 | +$149 +4.5% | 21 |
| 158d | Actual-Ladle | 120-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$38 +3.6% | 21 |
| 158d | yolol | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 158d |  Dr.napol | 100-119 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,393 | +$148 +4.4% | 21 |
| 158d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,002 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | Dense-Muscat | 120-139 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$214 +7.1% | 22 |
| 158d |  Benevento | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,613 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 158d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 120-139 | SellNo62¢ → 100¢ | $1,583 | −$973 −61% | — |
| 158d | 0085 | 120-139 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$114 +10% | 23 |
| 158d | Jasonzz | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 158d | timyotolc | 100-119 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,414 | −$280 −20% | — |
| 158d | Degenerate-Dude | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 120-139 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,898 | +$450 +16% | 24 |
| 158d | Intelligent-Tax | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,980 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 158d |  Boss73 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,544 | +$55 +0.3% | 20 |
| 158d | Boss7 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,897 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | yolol | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,715 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 158d |  hkhjfgy | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,195 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 158d | Sizzling-PasswordNew account | 100-119 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | −$173 −15% | — |
| 158d |  ril5n2d6 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,970 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | geraldhew89 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 158d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 120-139 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$179 +18% | 24 |
| 158d | Dymaknight | 120-139 | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,381 | −$1,381 −100% | 30 |
| 158d |  Nikzzy | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,280 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 158d | dodca | 100-119 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$273 +25% | 25 |
| 158d | ril5n2d6 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,514 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 140-159 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$15 −1.4% | — |
| 158d | xxtgsy | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,200 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 158d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | −$13 −1.2% | — |
| 158d | BinaryBaron | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,564 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
nimikm6,100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 5 12:00 PM ET to May 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 100-119 means the market gives it about 100%.